Big Picture Weather Pattern:

A strong ridge of high pressure will build over the West and expand northward on Wednesday, resulting in a transition to above-average temperatures throughout the West. For areas that experienced a cooler-than-average May, it will start to feel like summer for the first time this year. 

Temperatures will be above average throughout the Western U.S. over the next five days. Desert areas and lower valleys in the Southwest, Great Basin, and California will experience dangerous heat with high temperatures in the triple digits. 

Check out our upcoming temperature forecast Redding, California (left image) and Moab, Utah (right image). Unfortunately, it looks like the heat is going to stick around for a while in these areas. 

5-Day Precipitation Forecast:

Although we are heading into a drier pattern for most areas midweek, shower and thunderstorm chances will start to creep into the picture across the Intermountain West by late in the week and over the weekend. The eastern ranges of Colorado and New Mexico also have the potential to see heavy downpours this weekend.

Forecast for Wed (Jun 5) to Thu (Jun 6):

Mostly dry conditions are expected, though some isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Sierra and Great Basin, along with parts of Oregon and Idaho. Rainfall looks to be brief and light with any storms that develop.

Forecast for Fri (Jun 7) to Sat (Jun 8):

A trough of low pressure will approach the West Coast but will weaken as it encounters the high pressure ridge inland. Even so, abundant moisture will be in place across the Interior West and a destabilizing atmosphere will allow for afternoon thunderstorm chances to ramp up across the Great Basin and Central Rockies.

The Front Range of Colorado could potentially see more widespread thunderstorms with locally heavy rain on Saturday. 

Forecast for Sun (Jun 9) to Mon (Jun 10):

Weather models are not in great agreement during this period, but for now, it appears that we will see a good chance of thunderstorms throughout the Rockies from Canada to New Mexico with the potential for heavy downpours and frequent lightning under stronger thunderstorms. One exception is Utah (at least outside of the Uintas) which may end up on the drier side.

The eastern ranges of Colorado and New Mexico (Front Range and Sangres) could see more widespread thunderstorms with heavy rain possible due to easterly winds (blowing from the east) and an influx of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Outlook for Tue (Jun 11) to Sat (Jun 15):

Temperatures will continue to be warmer than average throughout the West, though some models are hinting at possible cooling in the Pacific Northwest toward the end of this period (low confidence).

We should see enough moisture lingering across the Intermountain West along with occasional shortwaves moving through to result in semi-regular afternoon thunderstorm chances from the Sierra to the Great Basin to the Rockies.

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Friday (June 7).

Alan Smith 

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