Big Picture Weather Pattern:

There are several features on Monday's weather map that will impact the Western U.S. over the next 1-5 days. Yellow/red colors on the map below indicate above-average heights (associated with high pressure) in the upper atmosphere, and blue/purple colors indicate below-average heights (associated with low pressure and more active weather).

• An area of low pressure over the Southern Rockies will contribute to showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain over Southern Colorado and Northern New Mexico on Monday.
  
  
• A trough of low pressure over the Northern Rockies will lead to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the eastern ranges of Montana and Wyoming (especially the Bighorns) with large hail and strong wind gusts possible.
  
  
• A ridge of high pressure pushing into California will lead to hot temperatures across the lower elevations of California and the Great Basin.
  
  
• An area of low pressure off the Baja Coast will migrate inland late this week, leading to scattered terrain-driven thunderstorms across the Southwest and Southern Rockies from Thursday to Saturday.
  
  
• A trough of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska will work its way into the PNW later this week, resulting in cooler temperatures and occasional light showers for the Cascades and Olympics.

5-Day Precipitation Forecast:

Over the next 5 days, the mountains of Colorado and Northern New Mexico will see the heaviest rainfall. Monday's rainfall will contribute to much of this total, but we could also see an uptick in rain and thunderstorms in this region on Friday. The Olympics and Cascades in Washington will also see light rainfall this week.

Forecast for Mon (Jun 10) to Tue (Jun 11):

Showers and thunderstorms will be most widespread across the Southern Rockies on Monday, with more isolated coverage on Tuesday. The eastern side of the Northern Rockies will see more isolated storms and lighter rain on Monday, but some storms could become severe with strong winds and large hail.

The Cascades and Olympics will see light rain showers on Tuesday, and the higher terrain of the Sierra will also see isolated thunderstorms on both Monday and Tuesday.

Here is a closer look at New Mexico and Southern Colorado where heavier rainfall is expected early this week. Higher terrain could see a half-inch to an inch of rainfall, with isolated amounts of well over an inch possible.

For the Village of Taos Ski Valley, our forecast indicates a good chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon with 0.24 inches of rainfall expected in the valley. We are also estimating wet trail conditions in the area due to recent rainfall.

Forecast for Wed (Jun 12) to Thu (Jun 13):

Most of the West will dry out and heat up on Wednesday as high pressure takes control. On Thursday, an area of low pressure spinning off the Baja Coast will approach the West Coast, and we could see some isolated thunderstorms develop across the Southwest, Southern Rockies, and Sierra with light and spotty rainfall.

Forecast for Fri (Jun 14) to Sat (Jun 15):

Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous across the Southwest, with more widespread activity and heavier rainfall likely in Colorado and Northern New Mexico where more abundant moisture will be in place.

Showers will also develop across the Pacific Northwest as a cooler airmass takes hold, favoring the Olympics and Cascades in Washington. A few isolated thunderstorms are also possible in Montana and Northern Wyoming. 

Outlook for Sun (Jun 16) to Thu (Jun 20):

Cooler-than-average temperatures will prevail across the Northwest with occasional showers possible across the Cascades and Northern Rockies. Above-average temperatures will prevail across the Southwest with areas near the Continental Divide in Colorado and New Mexico having the highest odds of thunderstorms.

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Wednesday (June 12).

Alan Smith