The Northeast of the United States has seen an abundance of rainfall in the past few weeks and even the last couple of months due to a persistent storm track bringing heavy rain. This consistent and heavy rain has affected the New England region the most, with flash flooding causing damages and even deaths.

Let’s take a look at how wet it has been, why it has been so wet, and the upcoming forecast with drier weather on the horizon. 

How wet has it been?

The past 30 days in the Northeast have felt like a nonstop deluge of rain and a quick look at some data can tell us that this is true. Here is a look at the past 30 days of the Departure from Normal Precipitation (inches) from June 20th through July 19th. 

Nearly the whole state of Vermont (VT) has seen greater than 4 inches of rain above the normal with a few areas above 8 inches. Some locations are even above 12 inches from the normal since mid-June, extending into New York. Some areas are below normal (yellow) because thunderstorms have been a major contributor to the precipitation, which can cause locally heavier and lighter amounts of rain. 

Here is a look at more precipitation data over the past 30 days in the towns of Rutland (left) and Plainfield (right) Vermont. 

Images courtesy of the Burlington National Weather Service. The heaviest burst of rain was from the July 9 - 11 period. 

Several areas throughout VT have already broken July precipitation records. These precipitation records have unfortunately been associated with deaths and damages to towns and infrastructures. Montpelier, VT has been one of the hardest hit towns with catastrophic damage reported due to flash flooding. 

Check out some footage of the flooding on the Winooski River in Winooski, VT on July 11th.

Footage courtesy of Eli Olson. 

Additional records and floods are extending into other Northeastern states from Pennsylvania through Maine. The tallest point, Mount Washington, continues to set extremes with the current accumulated precipitation as of July 19th at 14.54 inches. They are currently 4th with this amount, but with several inches of rain in the forecast, and since there is still over a week left in July, the July precipitation record of 16.59 inches (1996) is likely to be broken. 

Mount Washington set a new June precipitation record with 17.30 inches, breaking the old record of 16.00 inches. They also set a new June snowfall record with 8.4 inches. Records at this location date back to 1933.

Why has it been so wet?

The Northeast has been so wet because of a consistent storm track combined with sub-tropical moisture that has brought much of the rain via thunderstorms. 

The map below indicates departure from normal "heights" in the upper atmosphere at approximately 18,000 feet above sea level. Positive (+) anomalies indicate higher heights and stronger "ridging" than normal, and negative (-) anomalies indicate lower heights and more "troughing" than normal.

This area of the atmosphere has caused storms to track as the red arrow above, bringing nonstop rain to the Northeast. Additionally, these storms are accessing sub-tropical moisture from the southeastern US, which is causing thunderstorms, adding to the intensity of rainfall over the region.

Will the wet weather end? 

There is still rain forecasted in the short term over the next week for many Northeastern states. The saving grace is looking into the extended forecast past a week, where drier weather is set to return. 

In the meantime, the next storm system will move into the Northeast on Friday, July 21st. This storm will track over the region, bringing more thunderstorms with heavy downpours and possible flash flooding. Some rain showers will remain in New England on Saturday, July 22nd, but be clear elsewhere and continue to be clear on Sunday, July 23rd.

Total precipitation amounts will vary due to thunderstorms creating local high and low amounts. Here is a look at the forecasted precipitation (inches) from Friday through Saturday. 

The weather pattern will finally be drier starting next week on Monday, July 24th. There will still be areas of the Northeast that see scattered thunderstorms next week, but the storm track will finally shift to the north into Canada. 

Here is a look at the GFS model’s predicted upper-level pattern from Wednesday, July 26th to Monday, July 31st.

The warm colors show warmer and seasonable temperatures with drier weather for the Northeast next weekend.

Don’t let the rain stop your outdoor adventures. Keep a tab on the OpenSnow current and forecast radar for the latest conditions. 

Zach Butler