As of Monday morning on August 5, hurricane Debby has impacted the northwest Florida coast as a category 1 hurricane. Debby will rapidly weaken but continue to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Florida and the Southeast US over the coming days. Heavy rain will be the largest threat with the remnants of Debby this week and potentially impacting New England by Friday, August 9.

Let's go over the timeline for Debby this week and the expected weather.

Monday, August 5

Hurricane Debby made landfall near Steinhatchee Florida on Monday morning as a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Debby will continue to move northeast into Florida and Georgia on Monday as winds weaken. As winds weaken, the greatest threat will be heavy rain that will also extend into South and North Carolina. Additionally, several thunderstorms will cause tornadoes on Monday throughout the Southeast.

Check out the current satellite imagery of Debby and the radar associated with it at 8 am ET.

Debby will continue to move northeast into Florida on Monday and weaken as it does so into a tropical storm with sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Despite the weakening, Debby will continue to bring heavy rain and tornadoes throughout the southeast. The greatest threat for tornadoes will be in Florida, southern Georgia, and southern South Carolina.

Storm surges are currently 6-10 feet in northwest Florida on Monday and 1-4 feet to the north and south along the coast. These storm surges will decrease on Monday in western Florida but increase along the Georgia and South Carolina coast to 1-4 feet on Monday and into Tuesday.

Learn More → Tropical Cyclones, Explained

Tuesday, August 6 and Wednesday, August 7

Debby will continue to be a tropical storm on Tuesday and Wednesday as the storm centers itself in southeastern Georgia and near South Carolina. Winds will continue to be tropical storm strength at 39-73 mph on Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will be on the lower end of this range and located primarily in northern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and southern South Carolina.

Debby is forecasted to continue to weaken and slow down its forward speed considerably, becoming semi-stationary on Tuesday and Wednesday. Debby will become semi-stationary during this timeframe because of a weak jet stream and a lack of weather systems to steer it. This will cause Debby to remain in southeast Georgia and just off the coast near South Carolina with tropical storm conditions.

Check out the upper-level wind forecast on Tuesday evening. The center of Debby is shown with weak winds in the upper part of the atmosphere causing the storm to remain semi-stationary.

While tropical storm Debby remains semi-stationary on Tuesday and Wednesday, it will bring heavy rain to the Southeast US. There will be localized areas of heavier rain (>15 inches) that will be caused by rain bands in the tropical storm continuing to fall over the same areas. This will cause dangerous flooding in many locations.

The most favorable area of flooding will be along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina. These coastal areas and several miles inland will see the most frequent rain bands with forecasted rain amounts of 15-20+ inches from Monday, August 5 through Saturday, August 10. Tuesday and Wednesday will see the heaviest rain of 4-10+ inches.

Check out the forecasted rain amounts from Monday, August 5 through Saturday morning, August 10.

Storm surges along the coast of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina will continue to be 1-4 feet on Tuesday and Wednesday as Debby remains semi-stationary. Despite the heaviest rain near the coast, heavy rain will fall inland through the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic with 1-6+ inches likely.

Thursday, August 8 through Sunday, August 11

Debby is forecasted to become a tropical depression on Thursday with sustained winds less than 39 mph. The remnants of Debby will still bring heavy rain to areas in the Southeast, adding to the forecasted historic rainfall amounts.

The exact location and speed at which the remnants move on Thursday and thereafter become uncertain during this time frame due to the lack of winds that will steer the storm. The storm will still bring very heavy rain as it slowly drifts north along the North Carolina and Virginia coast. Heavy rainfall amounts of 5-8+ inches will be localized and is too difficult to pinpoint this far out.

The forecast of Debby's remnants will be impacted by a storm system moving through the Northeast US on Tuesday and Wednesday. This storm system to the north will be close enough to Debby's remnants to cause it to move slowly north.

Check out the mid-level winds from Thursday evening through Saturday evening showing the remnants of Debby drifting north and moving faster as the storm to the north "sucks" it up.

The speed at which the remnants move north on Friday and into the weekend remains difficult to pinpoint, but heavy rainfall be favored for coastal locations in the Northeast. Heavy rainfall will continue to be localized with a widespread 1-3 inches expected but more than 5 inches of rain likely in some areas.

Below is the forecasted rain amount from Thursday, August 8 through Sunday, August 11.

The greatest area of uncertainty with the rain will be interior areas in the Northeast, due to the track of Debby's remnants. If the remnants move further toward the coast, the widespread 1-3 inches of rain and localized 5+ inches will move to the west.

Thanks for reading.

Zach Butler