As of Wednesday morning October 9, Hurricane Milton is a category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 155 mph. Milton has become the 4th strongest hurricane on record and is forecasted to make landfall south of Tampa Bay, Florida as a category 4 hurricane early Thursday morning. Milton will bring widespread damage to Florida with strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rain with flooding.

Let's go over the timeline for Milton (past and future), key statistics around this impressive hurricane, and the anticipated impacts. 

Sunday, October 6 through Tuesday, October 8

Hurricane Milton started in the Gulf of Mexico and has undergone rapid intensification, similar to how Hurricane Helene did several weeks ago. This rapid intensification is due to very warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico (85-88 degrees Fahrenheit). This helped strengthen Milton from a category 2 hurricane on Monday morning to a category 5 hurricane by Monday evening.

• Hurricane Milton's wind speeds increased by nearly 90 mph within 24 hours.
• This rapid intensification is among the fastest ever recorded since records began in 1980.
• Milton's pressure fell to 897 hPa on Tuesday evening, which made Milton the 4th lowest on record since 1979.

Rapid intensification is when a storm strengthens very quickly (< 24 hrs) with stronger winds and grows in size.

• Category 1 -> 74-95 mph, 64-82 kt, 119-153 km/h
• Category 2 -> 96-110 mph, 83-95 kt, 154-177 km/h
• Category 3 -> 111-129 mph, 96-112 kt, 178-208 km/h
• Category 4 -> 130-156 mph, 113-136 kt, 209-251 km/h
• Category 5 -> 157 mph or higher, 137 kt or higher, 252 km/h or higher

Learn more -> Tropical Cyclones, Explained

Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico as of Monday, October 7, 2024. These are well above normal and leading to the rapid intensification of Milton!

Wednesday, October 9

Hurricane Milton is around 200 miles off the western Florida coast as of Wednesday morning and is forecasted to make landfall between Tampa Bay and Sarasota Florida late Wednesday evening and early Thursday morning. Milton is forecasted to be a category 4 hurricane at landfall, however, Mitlon could weaken to a strong category 3 hurricane as well.

Milton is slowly weakening as it approaches Florida due to strong wind shear in the Southeast US, related to an upper-level trough and a weak jet stream to the north. Wind shear is how the wind changes speed and direction with height. High wind shear causes movement in the atmosphere, which disrupts the uniform circulation needed for tropical cyclones. 

Milton has weakened slightly since being a category 5 hurricane on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday morning, but will still pose a catastrophic effect for Florida as a category 3 or 4 hurricane.

Strong Winds: Milton is forecast to make landfall as a 4 category with sustained winds of 130-156 mph. Milton has a large wind field, with hurricane winds well away from the center of the storm. Tropical storm force winds are also extending far away from the storm center and will bring tropical winds to many areas of Florida.

OpenSnow Wind Map.

Milton's hurricane-force wind field is localized to the landfall location and nearby areas with tropical storm-force winds in northern and southern Florida.

Milton will quickly weaken at landfall and degrade to a category 2 hurricane by Thursday afternoon as it moves into the Atlantic Ocean off of eastern Florida.

Storm Surge: This is one of the most dangerous aspects of Milton but is also the most localized to western Florida in the Tampa Bay area. Storm surges at the direct impact area and to the south of this will see 10-15 feet of sea-level rise! This will extend several miles inland, due to how flat this area of Florida is.

• Tampa Bay is forecasted for 8-12 feet of sea-level rise.

Storm surges will decrease outside of the 10-15 feet near the south and north of the Tampa Bay area. Storm surges of 3-12 feet will cover large swaths of the South Florida coast and become less impactful the further north you go toward the Florida panhandle.

Heavy Rain: Milton will have a narrow area of very heavy rain in Florida of 12-16+ inches that will cover the Tampa Bay area and to the northeast through Orlando. This area of heavy rain is located on the north side of the direct landfall area.

Areas outside of this area will still see 4-10+ inches of rain and southern/northern Florida will see light rain from Milton as the rain swath covers a narrow area in the direct path.

An additional threat associated with the heavy rain will be tornadoes. Tornadoes often occur once tropical cyclones make landfall because of increased wind shear. Increased wind shear causes tropical cyclones to weaken but can also cause tornadoes. Tornadoes form because of increased wind speed and direction changes with height. This creates a spin in the atmosphere, which allows tornadoes to develop.

Below is a look at the tornado probability on Wednesday, October 9 with southern Florida seeing the greatest threat.

Thursday, October 10

Milton will quickly move through Florida and into the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday afternoon. This storm will not stick around like Helene and move through Florida quickly due to an upper-level trough with a weak jet stream in the Southeast. This upper-level trough is having a big impact on Milton by:

1. Causing Milton to move quickly through Florida and out to sea
2. Causing Milton to weaken slightly as it makes landfall

Milton will pose a threat to Bermuda as a tropical storm on Saturday, October 12 but the forecast of the track and intensity is uncertain this far out.

Thanks for reading and stay safe!

Zach Butler