The national radar on Thursday morning shows snow and rain showers over the Pacific Northwest and steadier snow over northeastern Colorado.

Zooming into Colorado, you can see the snow over the northeastern plains. There is snow falling in the northern mountains as well (pictures below), but radar often cannot detect this mountain snowfall due to the mountains blocking the radar beam, or the radar beam overshooting the snowfall (the beam is angled upward to avoid hitting objects close to the radar station, but at longer distances, this means that the beam can wind up above the snow-producing clouds).

The best accumulations on Wednesday night fell along the divide and north of I-70.

Eldora reported 2 inches.

Winter Park has 2 inches on their snow stake camera.

Based on webcams and SNOTEL sites, snowfall at other mountains is…-
Cameron Pass - 2-4”
Copper - 1-2”
Loveland - 1-2"
Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Cooper, Keystone - Dusting to 1"

For the rest of Thursday, the trajectory of the storm’s energy, plus the wind direction and temperatures, should favor snowfall at the higher elevations along the divide, the same places that are picking up the higher totals now. Lighter snowfall could move a bit further south and west as well.

Through next Wednesday…

Expect times of snow and times of drier weather in the northern mountains. The storm track will sit near or just north of northern Colorado, and every time a wave of energy moves through the flow, we’ll get a period of more intense snow.

The best chance for powder days will be on Saturday and Tuesday. With snow falling over multiple days, conditions should become softer each day, but Saturday and Tuesday are the days that have a chance for deeper accumulations due to stronger waves of energy pushing through Colorado.

The best locations for deeper snow will likely be at the higher elevations along and near the divide, like Cameron Pass, Rocky Mountain National Park, Eldora, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, and Copper.

The further north and east you go in the mountains, the better chance of seeing snow from these passing waves of energy.

Other mountains further west, like Vail, Beaver Creek, and Steamboat, should also see snow, but amounts will likely be lower and snowfall could be more confined to the periods of stronger energy, like Saturday and Tuesday.

The central and southern mountains should stay mostly dry, with light snow possible on Saturday and Tuesday when the stronger energy moves through.

Total accumulations over six days should be more than 12 inches for the favored areas I just mentioned.

The snow forecast from the European model.

The snow forecast from the American GFS model.

* Consistency. A little bit of snow every day for a week can add up to great conditions even if there are no single days with big snow totals. This is the unsung hero of powder skiing in Colorado. Give me a few days of a few inches over one day of 12 inches … the base is soft, the skiing is good, and the crowds are diminished.

* Snow quality and wind. We’ll see warmer temperatures with these storms (in the 20s), so the snow might be a bit thicker compared to what is normal in Colorado. Also, times of stronger winds (especially in the higher elevations) could also lead to thicker snow. But, thick snow can serve a purpose, which is to soften the base and create a cushy layer, and then any colder and fluffier snow that falls on top could ski very well.

* How to ski the most snow. Check back daily for updated forecasts. I only have confidence in the timing and strength of each wave of snow about 36 hours into the future. Also, watch the webcams and especially time-lapse webcams here on OpenSnow to see where and when the snow is falling, then go get it. During a low predictability storm cycle like this, there is no substitute for being ready to ski, looking out the window (or at webcams) and going to where the snow is the deepest. I’ll try to guide you as best as I can.

* Confidence. I am feeling pretty good about Tuesday being a powder day in the northern mountains because all models are agreeing on this and we’ll see a push of colder air at this time, which can enhance the snowfall rates. Otherwise, my confidence is very low concerning the timing and snow amounts between now and next Monday night or Tuesday.

We will likely transition to dry weather across Colorado starting next Wednesday or Thursday, and the dry weather should last about one week. It’s possible that a storm could sneak into Colorado during this time, but the general weather pattern will favor sunny and warm weather and not snowy and cold weather.

I do not know when we will see our next major storm. A storm or two might sneak into Colorado between February 8-15, or we might have to wait for a change in the general weather pattern, during the middle or end of February.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains