Sunday was a roller-coaster day. It started out sunny, warm, and windy, and then the cold front blew through during the midday and afternoon with intense snowfall, and temperatures dropped 15-20 degrees within 1-2 hours.

Below are the snow totals from Sunday midday through Monday morning at 500 am.

Northern Mountains
Beaver Creek - 6”
Cooper - 6”
Steamboat - 5”
Winter Park - 4”
Breckenridge - 3”
Vail - 3”
Copper - 2”
Keystone - 2”
Loveland - 2”
Arapahoe Basin - 1”

Central Mountains
Snowmass - 7”
Sunlight - 7”
Irwin - 6” (?)
Powderhorn - 6”
Aspen Highlands - 5”
Aspen Mountain - 5”
Buttermilk - 4”
Crested Butte - 3”
Monarch - 3”

Southern Mountains
Cimarron Mountain Club - 7.75"
Telluride - 5”
Silverton - 4”
Wolf Creek - 2” (?)
Purgatory - 1”

My forecast for this storm was for an average of 3-6 inches, favoring the northern mountains.

The reality was that the 3-6 inch forecast was in the ballpark, but instead of favoring the northern mountains, this storm favored mountains that were further west. All of the deeper totals, except Winter Park, occurred at the mountains that were on the western side of their zone. This likely occurred because the cold front hit with vigor, and then lost some energy and/or moisture as it moved from west-to-east across Colorado.

I love storm skiing and was at Steamboat on Sunday afternoon. The last run of the day on north-facing terrain had about 4 inches and was fun to ski (could still feel some hard base underneath), and the last run was quite a difference from the snow conditions at noon.

On Sunday night, temperatures dropped quickly into the single digits above zero, and as we talked about, this is a bit too cold for the atmosphere to make big snowflakes, so we did not see much accumulation on Sunday night even though there were still snowflakes in the air over the northern mountains.

Now on Monday morning, the temperature is cold (single digits above/below 0F) and the winds are strong at most mountains with sustained speeds around 20mph with gusts to around 40mph. If you’re heading out to ski on Monday morning, dress warmly and expect the new snow to feel dense due to the wind and also the cold temperature. Dense snow is useful as it helps to cover the hard base underneath, but don’t expect blower pow.

For the rest of Monday and Monday night, we’ll see wrap-around moisture from the storm as it moves to the upper Midwest. This should lead to lingering clouds and snow showers over the northern mountains with just light accumulations.

Tuesday should be warmer (highs in the upper teens to low 20s) and the gusty wind of Monday should relax by Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will be dry and warmer with high temperatures in the 30s.

There will be three time periods when we could get snow during the next two weeks.

The first period will be from Friday night through Sunday morning. This storm will be weak and if we do get snow, right now it looks like light amounts.

The second period will from later Sunday through next Tuesday (March 13). This storm may also be weak, but it could bring significant moisture, so there’s a chance for more significant accumulations. This storm has only shown up in the models during the last 24 hours … an example why you can’t trust the details of 7+ day forecasts!

The third period will start around Saturday, March 17th. Most models are showing a stormier pattern starting for the western US around this time, so we might have a decent chance for more consistent storms toward the last two weeks of the month, beginning with a system around the weekend of March 17-18.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains