Before getting to the forecast, I want to spend a moment chatting about snow reporting.

I’ve received a few emails recently asking why, when I list snow totals here on the Colorado Daily Snow (like in yesterday’s post), I include places like Cimarron Mountain Club (a private ski area in the southern mountains) or Irwin (a cat skiing area west of Crested Butte). The reason I like to show snow measurements from these areas is that they represent a trusted snow measurement from a mountainous area that otherwise has little information. Seeing snow data, even for areas that don’t receive a lot of skier traffic, helps me to understand how storms drop snow across the state, and I figure that some of you also are in the camp of ‘show me as much data as you can’. If you truly want a ton of data, there are over 100 SNOTEL sites (backcountry weather stations) in Colorado and the data is freely available online via the CAIC website, or search for “SNOTEL” and go down the rabbit hole of snow data!

SNOTEL sites provide the data for this map, showing the snowpack versus average across the western US. While the northern Rockies and Northwest are still showing the deepest snowpack, the central mountains (California, Utah, Colorado) are showing better numbers than earlier in the season.

The thick blue line in the graphic below shows this season’s snowpack across Colorado. We are sitting at about 70% of average. Since mid-January, the trajectory of our snowpack increase has been about average, but we are still well below the season average thanks to the exceptionally dry period from mid-November through mid-January (when the thick blue line went sideways).

Ok, on to the weather at hand and to the forecast…

Monday was sunny for the southern 2/3rds of Colorado while the northern mountains saw clouds and flurries. Temperatures were cold on Monday, only reaching the single digits in the north, to teens and 20s in the central and southern mountains.

On Monday night, the final wave of wrap-around energy moved across the northern mountains and it dropped a dusting to two inches of snow just before midnight. This should freshen the slopes for the first few runs on Tuesday morning.

Now on Tuesday morning, temperatures are once again chilly (within 5-10 degrees on either side of 0F at most mountains) but the sun is shining and the higher sun angle of early March should make it feel warmer than it is. Temperatures on Tuesday will reach the upper teens to mid-20s for most mountains, and along with blue skies, it’ll be a perfect day. Also, the wind speeds will be much lower on Tuesday compared to Monday.

For the rest of the week, Wednesday through Friday, expect dry weather, mostly sunny skies, and warmer temperatures, topping out in the 30s and 40s during the afternoon.

The next chance for snow will be on Saturday as a weak storm moves across Colorado from the northwest. I am keeping my forecast numbers low, just a dusting to a few inches from late Friday night through Sunday morning.

On the heels of the weak storm from the northwest will be a weak storm from the southwest that will bring a lot of moisture on Sunday through Monday or Tuesday. This storm may not bring a lot of snow to all of Colorado, but it could bring significant snow to a part of the state, thanks to the abundant moisture that it’ll push in from the Pacific Ocean. My best estimate is that the southern mountains will be favored on Sunday and Monday.

The University of Utah ensemble shows a few inches of snow in the northern mountains from Saturday through Tuesday.

The same model shows a better chance for more significant accumulations in the southern mountains, especially from Sunday through Monday.

In summary, expect some flakes for all mountains from Friday night through Tuesday, and the best chance for a legitimate powder day should be in the southern mountains on Sunday afternoon, Monday, and/or maybe Tuesday morning.

After that, I think next Tuesday through Thursday (March 13-15) will be dry, then a stormy pattern will set up over the western US starting around March 15 or 16.

Here is the weather pattern forecast, averaged from March 16-20, from the European model.

And below is the same forecast from the American GFS model.

It’s still too early to know exactly when we’ll have the best chance for powder days, and if this storm or series of storms will bring significant snow to Colorado or favor other states (like the previous storm on March 2-4).

No matter, the take-home message is that storms will return and we should have chances for significant powder days starting later next week.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Podcast
I was just interviewed for a travel-focused podcast and discussed strategies for chasing powder, tips for taking ski trips with families, and my funniest ski story. The episode is 40 minutes and is available for free here: http://travelagentinterview.com/42

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains