Wednesday was mostly cloudy for most of the day, then on Wednesday evening, a fast-moving squall brought a coating to one inch of snow to Beaver Creek, Vail, Copper, and Breckenridge.

Now on Thursday morning, we are actually seeing clearer skies, so we might be able to eek out a decent amount of sunshine during the first half of the day before more clouds arrive during the afternoon.

Storm from Thursday night through Friday night (now through Saturday morning)

I’ll leave the going forecast as-is for most of this storm, with snow starting on Thursday night and continuing through Friday afternoon with an average of 4-8 inches in the northern and central mountains.

The latest models show that snow could continue through Friday night and into Saturday morning, so in addition to likely powder on Friday, there could be fresh snow waiting for you on Saturday morning as well.

As I mentioned yesterday, the good parts of this storm are the longer duration of snow, from Thursday night through Saturday morning, and lots of moisture which can equate to deeper snow totals.

There has been no change in for the forecast for the bad part of this storm, which will be the warm temperature. Expect denser, thicker powder, and the snow level could be around 8,000-9,000 feet, which means rain at the base of some of the lower-elevation mountains.

The best skiing should be on Friday, with fresh snow in the morning and additional accumulations through the day, and also on Saturday morning since the latest models now show snow continuing on Friday night. The higher-elevation mountains will likely have the best quality snow.

A break on Saturday (or, it could keep snowing)

The large-scale weather pattern, with higher pressure nosing in and very warm temperatures (40s and 50s), would usually mean that we would see dry weather through the day.

However, the latest models are insisting that increasing moisture will lead to continuing showers for the highest elevations of the central and northern mountains. This precipitation could be snow during the morning and midday, above about 9,000-10,000 feet, then it will get very warm and the snow level could rise to 10,000-11,000 by the afternoon.

If you’re heading out on Saturday, expect everything from powder in the morning to very warm and slushy conditions in the afternoon with showers throughout the day, transitioning from snow to rain at all but the highest elevations.

Storm from Saturday night through Monday morning

The latest models show that the majority of the snow will fall on Saturday night with many mountains likely measuring 4-8 or 5-10 inches by Sunday morning.

There could be a break in the snow on Sunday morning, especially in the northern mountains, then snow showers will return for the northern and central mountains from Sunday midday through Monday morning.

Total snowfall should be in the 5-15 inch range, with most of the northern and central mountains getting double digits.

Like I said yesterday, the good parts of this storm are the long duration of the snow for about 30 hours from Saturday night through Monday morning, lots of moisture early in the storm, and cooler air on Sunday night which should help to create fluffier snow.

The bad part of this storm will once again be the warm temperature on Saturday night and Sunday morning, which will likely lead to snow levels initially around 9,000 feet.

My thought for the best time to ski powder is Sunday morning for dense, thick powder, then with some luck, we’ll have fluffier snow later on Sunday and Sunday night, so Monday morning in the northern mountains could offer some soft fluff.

Total snowfall

The precipitation forecast from Thursday night through Monday morning is impressive, with an average of about 1.0 - 1.5 inches of precipitation in the central and northern mountains. Using a rough snow-to-liquid ratio of 12-to-1 (denser than normal due to warm temperatures), this equates to 12-18 inches of total snowfall.

If your favorite mountain continues to be open after Sunday, well, that’s good news because more storms are in the forecast!

* A weaker system should bring 2-4 or 3-6 inches of snow to the northern mountains sometime between Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon (April 10-11). The best chance for some powder will be on Wednesday morning/midday.

* A stronger and colder storm should bring significant snow to the northern mountains between next Thursday night and next Saturday midday (April 12-14).

* And another significant storm is possible around the following Tuesday, April 17th.

While the near-term storms on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be on the warmer side, you’ll still find powder at the higher elevations, and the future storms around April 12-14 and April 17 look like they will be colder, so the chances for powder will continue.

It ain’t over until it’s over. Around here, that usually means chances for powder through early May, and this year shouldn't be any different.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains