Saturday was a sunny and beautiful day across Colorado with high temperatures at the ski areas between about 35-45F.

Wolf Creek is open on weekends only while Loveland and Arapahoe Basin are now open seven days per week through the season.

Overnight low temperatures are getting cold enough at mid and higher elevations so that many ski areas are now making snow.

As of Sunday morning, the radar animation shows precipitation (mostly rain) over the southwestern US. This shows where our next storm will be coming from.

While the storm is still far enough away so that we will NOT see precipitation on Sunday, we are seeing mid-level clouds in advance of the storm.

The view at the top of the Grand Mesa, in western Colorado, shows the clouds.

And the new webcam at the top of Keystone, looking west-northwest, also shows the clouds moving in.

From Monday midday through Wednesday evening expect times of high-elevation snow, low-elevation rain, and also plenty of times of dry weather. This storm will produce on-and-off showers rather than steady precipitation.

The best chance for the most snow will be in the southern mountains. The graphic below is the average of 51 versions of the European model. It’s useful to average multiple model versions, but this is also a lower-resolution model which means that snow amounts can be higher than what is shown.

It’s likely that the southern mountains could get 3-6 inches by midweek while other mountains will also see a few inches of snow. Temperatures will be warm so the snow level will be high, around 10,000-11,000 feet, or near the upper elevation of most ski areas (the open resorts of Arapahoe Basin and Loveland are at a higher elevation, so they should see all snow).

Once this storm moves to the east, Thursday and Friday should be dry with more sunshine.

The next chance for a weak storm will be sometime later on Friday or Saturday. This system will likely just brush by northeastern Colorado and most mountains will NOT see any snow. The northern-most mountains might see some showers as the storm moves by.

After that, it looks like the next chance for a storm will be around Tuesday, October 30th. The European, American GFS, and Canadian models all show some variation of this storm, but it's much too far out to know the details.

Thanks for reading … next update on Monday, October 22.

JOEL GRATZ

Cool things you might like!

* New! Get to see heli-skiing in virtual reality using an Oculus headset. I tried it last week and it was actually super cool to feel like you were in a helicopter and skiing with friends on big slopes, and it was the first time that doing something in virtual reality felt like a real value and not just a gimmick. Headsets will be available (as well as complimentary food & drink) at the CMH Heli-Ski event in Denver on Wednesday, October 24th. RSVP here.

* New! A contest where the winner (and 19 friends) get a mountain to themselves for a day. Enter here.

My upcoming presentations about the winter forecast and tips for chasing pow!

* October 25 in Golden at Powder7 Ski Shop starting at 630pm. Free to attend! Details here.

* New! October 30 in Nederland at Salto Coffee Works starting at 630pm. Beer and food available for purchase. Free to attend!

* November 1 in Boulder at Neptune Mountaineering starting at 600pm. Free to attend! There will be happy hour, my talk, the short film “Abandoned” about lost ski areas, and a raffle with REALLY good prizes. Details here.

* November 9 in Breckenridge/Frisco area. Details soon.

* November 28 in Vail.

* December 5 in Denver

 

OpenSummit

We have an iPhone app that provides detailed weather forecasts for your hiking, biking, and climbing adventures. OpenSummit now includes forecasts for 1,000 of the highest and/or notable summits and hiking areas across the United States. Download OpenSummit (iPhone only)

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains