Summary

The entire state of Colorado will see snow showers from Thursday through Monday, but most areas will see low accumulations. The deepest accumulations should be east of the divide and around Wolf Creek.

 

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Details

Happy Thanksgiving!

In Thursday morning’s water vapor satellite image, can see the storm spinning over Nevada and Utah. Here in Colorado, notice some of the darker coloring over the western part of the state. This is indicative of drier air in the middle and upper part of the atmosphere. This drier air that is being wrapped into the storm is keeping snow showers light or absent from most mountains.

Source: Weathertap.com

 

The bands of snow associated with the first part of the storm generally fell apart on Wednesday night into Thursday morning as they moved into Colorado, which is why most mountains are reporting zero inches of new snow on Thursday morning.

There are some exceptions, though.

East of the divide and north of I-70, Eldora is reporting 2 inches and further north, up near Rocky Mountain National Park and Estes Park, it appears that about 5 inches fell in some spots. Also, Wolf Creek reported 3 inches of snow on Wednesday night. All of this was generally covered well in yesterday’s forecast.

Speaking of yesterday, I received a few notes from disgruntled readers asking me to stop being wishy washy with the forecast. I replied that I’d love to, and for some storms I do offer more confident forecasts. But this storm is not something I can be confident about, as it will stall and wobble for five days and I cannot trust the model’s forecasts because they change every 6-12 hours as the storm wobbles in new ways. Meteorology is not perfect. Enjoy the uncertainty! If we could figure things out perfectly, powder chasing wouldn’t be as exciting…

As an example of the challenges with this storm, check out the radar image around 8am on Thursday morning. Notice the very thin band of snow, which is creating about 1/3 inch-per-hour snowfall at Beaver Creek while it’s barely snowing at just down the road at Vail or just to the south in Aspen. Yes, high-resolution computer models do indicate the chance for narrow bands of heavier snow, but they cannot reliably forecast the exact placement of these bands, down to the mile. So, when I forecast 0-1 inches of snow, I do so thinking that most areas will not see much snow, while a few spots could get lucky, experience a band of snow, and see a bit higher accumulations.

Source: Radarscope

 

For Thursday, look for the current pattern to continue. A few inches east of the divide, a few inches around Wolf Creek, and likely little accumulations elsewhere except for mountains that get lucky and see a heavier band of snow.

For Friday through Saturday, I think the best chance for decent accumulations will extend from Friday night through midday-ish on Saturday. The main storm will still be to our west during this time, but it will likely push a wave of energy across Colorado. This could result in a few inches at most mountains, with perhaps 6-12 inches around Wolf Creek. Like I said yesterday, Wolf Creek has the highest chances of seeing a moderate powder day on Saturday.

Saturday night through Monday is still tough to pin down. I think much of this time will be on the drier side, with perhaps another wave of energy and a few more inches of snow for the central and northern mountains.

Overall, my snow forecast for most mountains is rather low from Thursday through Monday. The locations that should receive the most snow will be around Wolf Creek (12+ inches if things go well), east of the divide (Eldora up through Rocky Mountain National Park with perhaps 4-8 inches), and anywhere that is lucky enough to experience a randomly-placed band of snow.

We should return to dry and sunny weather starting on Tuesday, and I am keeping the forecast dry through the end of next week as I think the next storm will stay to our south. As I mentioned yesterday, we are transitioning to a new weather pattern starting next week, and this new pattern is not very conducive to snowfall in Colorado, with a large ridge of high pressure to our north. Yes, it could and likely will snow at some point during the first two weeks of December, but right now the odds of getting consistent snowfall are pretty low based on my reading of the 7-15 day forecast models.

I hate to end on a negative note, so enjoy sliding on the snow that’s on the ground, be mindful of the risks if you’re heading into the backcountry, and have a great Thanksgiving in the company of friends, family, and hopefully a few fresh snowflakes.

JOEL GRATZ