Summary

Snow will fall on all the northern mountains from Sunday through Tuesday morning. Steamboat and areas furthest north should see the most snow, perhaps double digits, while other northern mountains could see around six inches. The next storm will bring 2-4 or 3-6 inches to most mountains next Thursday into Friday. The best times to ski fresh snow during the next 7-10 days will be on Monday and Tuesday morning in the northern mountains, and perhaps Friday morning for most areas. Our current weather pattern is a warm one, and we may trend back to stormier and colder weather in early March.

 

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Details

Friday was a warm day across the state as mid-mountain temperatures (at 10,000 feet, ish) rose into the low to mid 40s.

Saturday should be another dry day and temperatures should drop a few degrees as a storm approaches from the northwest.

Snow showers should begin for the northern mountains on Sunday morning and continue on-and-off through Tuesday morning as multiple weak to moderate storms move near and across northern Colorado.

During this stretch of time, I think the highest chance for steadier snow will occur from midday Sunday through Monday morning, which should mean that there will be fresh turns on Monday morning in the northern mountains, with perhaps leftovers on Tuesday morning.

The American GFS model is predicting total precipitation of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in the northern mountains, which at a 15:1 snowfall ratio would translate to about 7-15 inches. Temperatures during this storm will be a bit warmer than the ideal range of -12 to -18C at 10,000 feet, so I think the snow ratio could be a bit lower than our normal, so let’s call it 12:1. This would argue for total snow amounts around 6 inches for many mountains, and up to 12 inches around Steamboat and perhaps a few other places that do especially well in northwest flow.

Source: weatherbell.com

 

The graphic below is from the high resolution WRF model from CAIC. It shows total snow amounts around 10 inches for most northern mountains with up to 30 inches just north of Steamboat. This model often forecasts too much snowfall, especially during periods of strong winds and warmer-than-ideal temperatures, so I wouldn’t hesitate to cut amounts by 50%.

Source: CAIC

 

The punchline for the Sunday/Monday storm is that the most snow will fall along and north of I-70 with most areas seeing at least 6 inches during a 48-hour time period, and a few spots could break double digits, especially around Steamboat. The time to find the best snow will likely be on Monday. Other central and southern mountains may get dusted on Sunday and Sunday night with perhaps an inch or two of accumulation.

Now that we have discussed the Sunday/Monday storm, let’s look ahead to see what the rest of February has in store for us.

For perspective, below is the weather pattern that we saw on Friday. Notice the ridge (red colors) over the rocky mountains. This usually indicates warm temperatures and little or no precipitation.

Source: weatherbell.com

 

The map below shows the weather pattern on Sunday. You can see that most of the colder and stormier weather (blue colors) will stay to the northeast of Colorado, with the northern mountains being clipped by some energy and snowfall.

Source: weatherbell.com

 

After the snow on Sunday and Monday, we should return to dry and warm weather next Tuesday and Wednesday. The map below shows the ridge returning to the Rockies during the middle of next week. In fact, current forecasts show that temperatures next Wednesday could be VERY warm with mid-mountain highs in the low 50s along with a gusty wind from the southwest. Spring skiing in February!

Source: weatherbell.com

 

Later next week, as shown below, we should see a weak storm cross Colorado on Thursday into Friday. This system will weaken as it moves from the Pacific Ocean into the Rockies, and the brunt of it will stay to our north. Right now I only expect perhaps 2-4 or 3-6 inches of snow from later Thursday into Friday morning, so there could be some fresh turns on Friday but it likely will not be a big powder day.

Source: weatherbell.com

 

After the storm late next week, the ridge should return again. I can’t rule out a few additional periods of snow at some point next weekend or early the following week (Monday, February 22nd, ish), but I’m not super excited about snowfall during this time. The map below shows the forecast for Wednesday, February 24th as the ridge takes control once again.

Source: weatherbell.com

 

As we’ve been discussing for a week now, most models show that the ridge will push further north by the end of February, potentially opening the storm door from the Pacific Ocean into the west coast and Rocky Mountains. And the 384 hour (16 day) GFS Ensemble Mean forecast, which averages together many variations of the GFS model, does show the ridge pushing north with the possibility of storms starting to move from west-to-east under (south) of the ridge.

Source: weatherbell.com

 

Putting all of this together, the northern mountains will see some snow on Sunday and Monday, then all mountains will see a bit more snow next Thursday and Friday, and then we will likely need to wait until the end of February or early March for the pattern to shift toward stormier conditions.

That’s all for now, and I’ll be back with my next update on Sunday morning. Thanks so much for reading, and have a great Saturday!

 

JOEL GRATZ

 

PS - Join me in Denver next Wednesday, February 17th. I’ll be giving a talk at the Arc’teryx Store (Cherry Creek area) and will cover the forecast for the rest of the winter, how to predict powder in each mountain range around Colorado, and the best websites and apps to help you track the weather. I might event throw in a few slides about how to find snow in Japan as I will just have returned from the trip:-) AND … for a small donation you’ll be able to drink beer from Avery Brewing! All of the donations will go to a charity founded in Colorado called SOS Outreach. PLUS … Arc’teryx will be giving away a free jacket. A pretty good way to spend a Wednesday night, eh? RSVP and see more details here: http://opsw.co/20qrD1E

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton, Durango, Wolf Creek (Telluride and Silverton are on the northern side of the southern mountains)