Powder days come in many forms and range from dense and surfy powder to light and blower powder. Many mountains enjoyed the light and blower pow variety on Sunday, and that was because the snow that fell on Saturday night accumulated during a time of light winds and perfect temperatures (about 9-14F at 10,000 feet). Here is my #MaxFluff picture from Sunday, and while I could still feel the crunchy base much of the time, it was a heckuva fun time! This was inbounds at about 9:30 am. Photo by Sam Collentine.

After the snow showers stopped on Sunday midday, we saw a few hours of sunshine, and then the final in the series of third storms increased clouds in the afternoon and snow began to fall on Sunday night. The Sunday-night snow has been denser (not #MaxFluff) because the winds are stronger (gusting 50-80mph on the ridges) and the temperature has increased by 5-10F overnight.

This meteogram from Aspen Highlands, available on the CAIC weather page, shows the increase in temperature (red line), the increase in wind speed (lower blue line), the increase in wind gust speed (red dots), and the change in wind direction from northwest to southwest (arrows). The time at the bottom is given in local time, so “Jan-23 00” is Sunday night at midnight.

Snowfall on Monday should be dense as the winds continue to blow and the temperature is steady or rises just a bit. The wind direction from the southwest and west-southwest should favor the southern and south-central mountains, though the northern mountains will see some snowfall. Here is how the storm looks on Monday morning – still centered off the northwest coast with lots of moisture moving inland from the Pacific Ocean. It’s a beauty!

A cold front will move across Colorado from west-to-east on Monday afternoon and Monday evening. This cold front, in combination with the jet stream overhead, should create a period of intense snowfall and gusty winds for all mountains. The heavy snow and low visibility (due to the gusty winds) can force road closures, so consider this if you’re planning to drive a long distance across mountain passes on Monday evening (leave earlier, later, or be ready for an alternate route).

The good news about the intense snow on Monday evening is that it should set up a great powder day on Tuesday morning. The snow quality on Tuesday morning could be on the denser side due to the wind speeds on Monday evening, but the temperature will be dropping on Monday night and Tuesday morning, so there could be some fluff on top of denser snow, which skis very well.

From Monday morning through late Monday night, the flow from the southwest and west-southwest will favor the southern and south-central mountains with 8-12+ inches of snow.

Then the flow will change on Tuesday morning and should begin to blow more from the west-northwest, and northwest. This direction usually favors the northern mountains, potentially Powderhorn on the Grand Mesa (though they can do better with winds from the north), Irwin, which is just west of Crested Butte, and the north side of the southern mountains, which includes Telluride and Silverton.

I am intrigued by the forecast from mid-morning on Tuesday through mid-afternoon on Wednesday. The setup has a flow from the west-northwest and northwest, cooling temperatures at 10,000 feet, and wrap-around moisture from the departing and strengthening storm to the east of Colorado. I have been forecasting snow in Colorado for about 10 years, and I remember that this setup can produce surprisingly deep amounts of #MaxFluff, especially for Steamboat, Vail, Irwin, Telluride, and Silverton.

The tough part of the forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday is this.

Every time there is a surprisingly deep amount of #MaxFluff (yes, I like the term:-) for the mountains I just mentioned, there is always a wind from the northwest, cooling temperatures, and plenty of moisture.

However, every time we have a northwest wind, cooling temperatures, and plenty of moisture, we don’t always get the surprisingly deep, fluffy snow.

Tricky. There must be other factors at play (aside from wind direction, temperature trend, and moisture), but I cannot quite pinpoint them.

For this reason, it’s hard for me to provide a confident forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday, and most models will not predict a lot of snow for this setup. But I will say that a significant potential exists for deep, fluffy powder on Tuesday (midday and afternoon) and Wednesday for Steamboat, Vail, Telluride, Silverton, and Irwin. Other mountains could get in on the action, but these are my picks based on past experience. Let's see how this plays out!

The cool northwest flow should stick around through Thursday, so the northern mountains may continue to see light snow through then.

Friday will be the beginning of our next weather pattern, which will bring dry and mostly sunny weather for a while. More on that below…

There will always be a few sunny and dry periods each winter, and this one should last about 7-10 days, from Friday, January 27 through at least Friday, February 3. There might be a storm to our north or northeast that could bring cooler air and a bit of snow between these dates, but for the most part we’ll see #MaxSun for about one week.

Then all longer-range models show stormy weather returning to the west coast starting around February 3-5. The longer-range outlooks from NOAA show this shift.

Once the current storm ends, we’ll look at the longer-range forecast in more detail.

Until then, happy pow days and thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains