Wednesday will be our final dry and warm day. Like Monday and Tuesday, we should experience a decent amount of clouds by midday and afternoon, and there might be a weak shower with little to no accumulation.

On Thursday morning or midday, the upcoming storm should push a line of rain and snow across Colorado, so expect some precipitation during the day.

Then on Thursday night, the storm will slow down and rapidly strengthen over the southeastern plains of Colorado. This position should create winds from the northwest, north, and northeast, and the snow will rapidly intensify on Thursday night.

The position of the heaviest snow will depend on the position of the center of the storm. While all models show the center of the storm somewhere over southeast Colorado, a difference in position of just 20-30 miles can make a massive difference in wind direction and the location of the heaviest snow.

To illustrate the sensitivity of snow totals to the exact location of the storm, the two images below show the snow forecast from the high-resolution 4km NAM-WRF model. The upper image was created just 6 hours before the lower image. We have higher confidence in snow amounts at locations where both images agree.

Notice in the upper image, the I-70 corridor just west of Denver is pegged with 8-16 inches of snow, but in the second image, amounts drop to 2-6 inches. Talk about uncertainty!

The forecast below is from the American GFS model. This model is also waffling back-and-forth with snow forecasts, and I picked a model run that I felt represented a reasonable average of the last few runs.

This massive uncertainty is why it’s best to look at a range of forecast possibilities, which is what the University of Utah ensemble forecast presents. This is for Loveland:

The red arrow points to 12-noon on Friday. Forecasts for this time range from 2-23 inches, with an average of about 12 inches.

The main message is that the best time for powder will be on Friday morning and that most mountains should receive 4-8, with some areas receiving 12+ inches mainly near and east of the divide. Snow levels will start high on Thursday and then drop to about 7,000 feet by Friday morning. There is a massive amount of uncertainty with this storm even though it is only 24-36 hours away. If you’re chasing pow, I would hedge toward the eastern mountains, but be ready to adjust plans!

Following the storm on Friday, we should see dry weather on Friday afternoon, Friday night, and most of Saturday.

The next storm should bring snow from Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. This storm will be weaker than the Thursday/Friday storm, but will likely still drop at least a few inches on most mountains.

The awesome part of the extended forecast is that the model average is to bring additional storms near or over Colorado during the last week of March and the first week of April. The graphic below shows the forecast from Sunday, March 26th through April 7th. Blue colors show storms. It’s impossible to forecast the exact track of storms 1-2 weeks into the future, but the blue colors are still good news because it shows the likelihood that we’ll be in an active pattern.

It’s hard to know if there is one time period next week or the week after that is favorable for heavier snow. If I had to estimate, I’d say later next week through the weekend of April 1-2 could bring heavier snow, and based on these storms potentially taking a more southern storm track, the best chances for deeper snow could be in the southern mountains, eastern mountains, and even into New Mexico.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains