Friday marks Loveland's opening day. Arapahoe Basin has been open for one week already. If you're heading up to ski on Friday, expect calm weather in the morning, but then the winds will ramp up by midday and we'll see gusts between 35-55mph from Friday midday through the afternoon for most of Colorado's mountains and high valleys.

Friday's wind is being generated by the tenth storm of the season, which will hit Colorado on Friday night. This is what the storm looks like in the middle of the atmosphere, where cooler colors show a trough of low pressure.

Timing and amount of snow

Expect snow showers to begin around sunset on Friday night and end around sunrise on Saturday morning. Most of the central and northern mountains will wake up to 2-4 inches on Saturday morning, and there could be a hair more in a few spots if we get a bit lucky. Temperatures will rapidly cool on Friday night, which means that we could eek out a bit more snow due to higher snow-to-liquid ratios.

Here is the CAIC 4km model's snow forecast for Friday night. An average of 2-4 inches with a bit more possible. Do not look specifically at the bullseyes of the heaviest snowfall as the exact location of these bullseyes will likely not be placed exactly correct.

The same CAIC 4km model shows the hourly detail for Berthoud Pass. Notice the temperatures cooling to near 10F on Saturday morning (top red arrow) and the timing of the snow between about Friday midnight and Saturday at 6am (bottom red arrow).

Saturday morning should remind us of what a wintry scene should look like. The higher passes will likely be snow covered, but I expect most road surfaces to transition to just wet by mid-morning as the sun comes out.

Following Friday night's storm, we'll return to sunny and dry weather from Saturday afternoon through about next Wednesday.

On or around Thursday and Friday, October 26-27, some models show that Colorado will get side-swiped with a storm slipping across the northern and eastern mountains.

If that happens, the northern and eastern mountains might see a bit of snow, though this will likely NOT be a big storm.

A few models then show another system during the last few days of October. I have zero confidence that this will happen ... stay tuned and we'll see.

Looking far ahead, I have no idea if we'll see a lot of snow in early November. If we do not, and if we have little or no snow on the ground by mid-November, the 30-year snowfall history still gives us reason for hope. In the years with little or no snow on the ground by mid-November, there is a 2/3rds chance of average or above average snowpack by late December. So don't let these stormy and dry periods in October and early November get you too excited or upset ... there is plenty of time for nature's snow machine to turn on.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Colorado Forecast Page → https://opensnow.com/state/co

Next Talk

I'll be giving a talk at Bentgage Mountaineering in Golden on Nov 8th. See you there!
https://www.facebook.com/events/1209665705844183/

Fundraiser

If you are in or near Buena Vista, there is a fundraiser on November 11th to raise money to bring the BV Special Education class skiing at the Breckenridge Outdoor Education Center. The event includes a movie and raffle. More info here:
http://thelariatbv.com/event/ski-movie-premiere-fundraiser/

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains