There is a lot of snow with an active storm track … about 200 miles north of Colorado.

Just like earlier this season, we are close to this storm track, but not reaping the rewards most of the time. The exception was the days leading up to and during Christmas Day when the storm track dropped south and brought 1-3 feet of snow to northern Colorado.

Looking ahead to the next 10 days, between December 27 - January 5, the European model shows the deepest snow to our north with a bit of snow just grazing Colorado’s northern mountains.

The American GFS model shows a similar pattern, with a storm track that’s just a hair further south, which would mean a bit more snow for Colorado’s northern mountains.

Zooming into the forecast for Colorado, here is what the American GFS model shows for snowfall as a storm passes on Saturday night into Sunday morning. If this scenario holds, expect 1-3 or 2-4 inches in the northern mountains and near/along/east of the northern divide.

I tend to believe the American GFS model’s forecast for at least a few inches of snow on Saturday night because the British model also shows this, and even though the often-more-accurate European model shows less snow, this model has not been performing as well this season.

During the last three months, snowfall has favored the northern mountains, and now we have about 30-60% of terrain open in the central and northern mountains, which is impressive considering the lack of natural snow for most of the season.

If you want to ski fresh snow over the next few days, Sunday morning in the northern mountains will likely be your best bet.

Most models show a continuation of the current weather pattern (storm track staying mostly north of Colorado) through about January 5th, and then a more active pattern between about January 5-10th.

The blue colors in the images below show cooler air and storminess.

The average of 51 versions of the European model for January 5-10:

The average of 21 versions of the American GFS model for January 5-10:

I am hopeful that these forecasts will verify and that we’ll see a few storms during the January 5-10 (ish) period, but of course all we can trust about 10-15 day forecasts is the general trend and not the placement of specific storms, so it’s too soon to be confident in major pow during the January 5-10 time frame.

Thanks for reading and I’ll keep you posted!

JOEL GRATZ

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains