This storm is hardly going to break the bank, so blizzard does not apply, for our region. But this is an early season snowfall that will benefit most ski areas even though it will be a travel headache on the day before Thanksgiving. The main issues with this coastal storm are:
- After record high temps on Monday, the air will remain warm until the storm arrives
- Elevation will be key for helping ski areas, but generally temps remain just above freezing during the event.
The Canadian and GFS Models are starting to look the same, while the European is the holdout for the big snow. At this point, I have to stay my course on the lower more conservative side. Many flakes will be wasted due to melting. But the arrival time will be key. If snow can pick up 1-3 hours before sunrise, there is a better chance to lay a coating on the grass. That will allow the ground temps to chill and hold more snow. If it can't overtake the warmth before sunrise, then it will fight daylight. While the late November sun angle is about the same as mid January, it is still an opposing force to stickage.
My call for snowfall does benefit some ski areas with 4"-8" considering the elevation impact to drop temps just below freezing. The top spot should be between Round Top near Harrisburg to the Poconos. Less will fall west just based on the storm track.
This will be an all Wednesday event, followed by colder temps overnight. That will allow for snow making to resume and setting the stage for an early opening at 7Springs, Wisp, and Snowshoe.
Compare the three main computer model snow forecasts below. Again, the European might be wishful thinking. At this point it appears to be too high given the circumstances.