Tahoe Daily Snow

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By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 5 years ago December 10, 2018

Active but Boring...

Summary

- A weak system moves through Monday. Right now it doesn't look like more than a dusting of snow is possible along the crest with nothing to the east across the Tahoe basin. Upper mountain gusts to 30+ mph during the day and highs in the 30's. - It looks like a break Tuesday-Thursday as the next storm moves through to our north. We should warm up again into the 40's at lake level and 30's in the upper elevations. Watch for winds to gust to 40+ mph on Wednesday. - The next storm for Friday could bring 1-2 inches of snow to the mountains if it can hold together. Then a stronger storm for Sunday is starting to show signs of splitting as well, but right now it looks like it could hold together enough for several inches of snow.

Short Term Forecast

The front moving through today is doing what we expected, falling apart as it moves through Northern CA.

fizzle

The forecast was for no snow across the Tahoe basin, just maybe a flake or two.  I had a dusting to an inch for the resorts west of the lake along the crest, but I'd lean towards dusting at best as the front moves through today.  The final model runs show any precip cutting off right before it reaches the Tahoe basin.

precip

Dry/Breezy:

We could see some sun Tuesday-Thursday with highs warming into the low-mid 40's at lake level and 30's above 8,000 feet.  For Wednesday we could see some clouds and expecting winds to gust to 40+ mph for the upper elevations.  So there could be some lift issues.

Another Weakling:

Yesterday I mentioned that there had been some runs of the forecast models showing a stronger system for Friday, holding it together better as it moved into Northern CA.  Today the forecast models are back to showing it weakening and falling apart as it moves through Friday night.

The 06z GFS model run had no precipitation now for Friday.

gfs friday

Meanwhile, the Canadian model is still showing a stronger system...

Canadian

See how much fun it is to try and forecast snowfall when one model has up to 8 inches and another shows 0?  The average of all the models and ensembles is a high end of 2 tenths of an inch along the crest.  The WPC model blends together several different models, a few that are different or missing from my average, but it's closer to showing the average.  Slightly wetter than my average.

wpc2

Based on the average I have 0-1 inches of snow as the forecast for most of the mountains, with up to 2 inches west of the lake along the crest on the ski resort pages.  So an active week with storms moving through and falling apart bringing clouds, wind, and maybe a little snow.  But overall a boring week if you are waiting for a big snowfall.

The Weekend:

After a break on Saturday, we have been watching for a stronger storm moving in on Sunday.  This storm is definitely the strongest of the week as it is moving across the Pacific towards CA.  This storm will have to encounter high pressure over the West as well but it looks like it will have a better chance of pushing moisture into CA.

The European model has been slowing, tilting, and then splitting this system as it moves into CA by Sunday night.  The latest model run now shows barely any precip making it into Tahoe.  This is still the outlier.  The other models do show a weakening storm, but not completely splitting apart before it reaches Tahoe.  The model average is up to 3/4 of an inch of liquid, with the GFS and Canadian models still showing over an inch.

Here is the WPC model through Sunday night.

wpc3

Not liking the trend with this storm.  Right now it still looks like several inches of snow is possible, but the European model could be sounding the alarm.  We will have to watch the trend closely over the next few days...

Extended Forecast

High pressure builds in behind the Sunday storm with a ridge over CA by Tuesday the 18th.  It looks like that could bring a drier pattern at least through the 19th as the storm track bumps north.

It looks like we could see a big overall pattern change happening from the 20th through the holidays.  The long-range model runs are kind of all over the place.  But the overall pattern looks like it could be shifting towards a large high-pressure ridge setting up over Alaska into Canada. 

That could lead to storms being forced underneath into CA.  You will see that starting to show up in the long-range of the models, but we need to start seeing better agreement and consistency on the pattern.  For now just expecting to continue to see weakening storms moving into CA for the next week, and then hoping for a wetter pattern starting around the 20th, hopefully not a drier one.

The Season:

Looking at the final November stats coming in, the Nino Index shows the first 3 month average for Nino 3.4 coming in at 0.7 degrees above average.  We need 5 consecutive 3-month averages above 0.5 for an official El Nino.  This one is definitely getting a late start and not looking that impressive.  There is warm water along the equator which could be starting to affect the pattern, but it's a narrow band and still looks pretty weak. 

Another interesting stat from November is that the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) flipped west for the first time since May of 2017.  If that continues that would change a few of the analog years.  The average would adjust to 86% of average snowfall for the Central Sierra Snow Lab historically.  Which still falls within my Fall forecast (guesstimate) of 85-95% of average snowfall this season.

Stay tuned...BA

P.S.  Last week I was thinking to myself that I would love to do more this holiday season for those less fortunate.  Ironically I got a call from my buddy Jon if I would be interested in teaming up with him to get toys for children affected by the Camp fire that lost everything.

Join us for skiing and boarding this Friday at Sugar Bowl.  Bring a toy (valued at $15 or more) and get 50% off your lift ticket.  For each toy donated Sugar Bowl will donate an additional $5 to the relief fund.  Victims of the fire will be able to ski for free on Friday.  I'll be there with my toy, and helping to collect toys and ski with everyone.  Put it on your schedule this week!

If you can't make it and still want to donate money here are two links below to do so.

https://www.goldenvalley.bank/Community-Foundation.aspx

https://www.nvcf.org/

About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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