Saturday - Tuesday:

We have a beautiful weekend in store with lots of sun and mild temperatures.  We have light winds this morning and temperatures will warm into the 40's on the upper mountains today, with 50's at lake level.  You will get a suntan/burn on your face so slap on some sunscreen unless you like the goggle tan/raccoon look...

The sunny and mild weather will continue into Tuesday.  We may see increasing clouds Tuesday afternoon as the next storm approaches the CA coast.

Tuesday Night - Thursday:

The forecast models are still at odds on what this storm is going to do.  The European model continues to show it splitting with most of the moisture going into southern CA.  The GFS has the system moving into Central CA with more precipitation for the Tahoe region.  Either way, it is a weak system with not a lot of moisture to work with.

We could see snow levels start around 8,000 feet Tuesday night as light precipitation moves in.  Then snow levels could drop as low as 6,500 feet into Wednesday with light showers continuing.  Wrap around moisture could continue showers into Thursday as low pressure sits over NV.  The snow levels could hover in the 6,500-7,000 foot range into Thursday with light showers before the system moves out.  

The European model only has up to 1-2 tenths of an inch of total precipitation over the 48 hours and has the agreement from its ensemble runs.  The GFS has up to 9 tenths of an inch of total precipitation and also has the agreement from its ensemble runs. 

The Canadian and WPC models are in the middle between the two with up to half an inch of total precipitation.  That is very light for a 48-hour system.

Expecting mostly all rain at lake level.  Because it is March with a high sun angle and the precipitation is light, expecting fairly wet snow around 7,000 feet.  It may only accumulate on snow already on the ground and at night.  Above 8,000 feet we could see   1-5 inches in total on the mountains by Thursday. 

If the European model is right we may only see up to an inch at best.  If the GFS is right we could see slightly more snow in the higher elevations.  So we will fine-tune the forecast as we get closer.

Friday:

It looks like we could see a break between storms on Friday.  We may see sun and clouds as the next storm approaches and could push in as early as Friday night.

We could see a slightly wetter and slightly colder storm for next Saturday.  The models are showing this trough hold together a little better as it pushes into northern CA.  We will look closer at the details this week as we get closer.  The latest model runs show snow levels starting around 7,000 feet and falling with the cold front, with several inches of snow possible on the mountains.

It still looks like we could see lower heights near the West Coast with storms possibly continuing into the last week of March.

The long-range model runs show another storm possible next Sunday, and another one behind that for Monday-Tuesday the 25th-26th.  

Fantasy Range:

We may see a short break later the week of the 25th.  But way out in fantasy range the models suggest that we could see more storms near the end of the month.  Here is the 2-week GEFS total precipitation forecast showing a wet northern CA.

The long-range ensemble mean runs suggest that lower heights continue into CA into the beginning of April, suggesting that the storm door could remain open.

That pattern lines up with the CPC's week 3-4 outlook for precipitation that they put out yesterday showing the storm track possibly continuing into CA into April.

Of course, this is way out in fantasy range and could change, but always fun to speculate...

Stay tuned...BA

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