Happy St. Patricks Day!  Get out and enjoy the nice weather today into Tuesday morning.  The storms return Tuesday night and could last for a week.  

Tuesday Night - Thursday Storm:

The first system for Tuesday night into Thursday morning is trending wetter on the latest model runs, with most of them now pushing the trough directly into central CA.  It is still a fairly weak system, but the trend further north towards Tahoe is a slightly colder and wetter scenario. 

The light rain and snow should push in Tuesday night, with snow levels starting as high as 8,000 feet.  Then falling close to lake level by Wednesday morning.  The heaviest showers could be on Wednesday, with scattered possibly lasting into Thursday morning as low pressure sits over NV.  The snow levels could hover around lake level through Wednesday, fall below 5,000 feet Wednesday night, and then start to rise Thursday as the storm departs.

Here is a look at the WPC model's total precipitation forecast through Thursday.

With the high sun angle, temperatures above freezing, and snow levels hovering around 6,000-6,500 feet, it will be hard for snow to accumulate at lake level.  Best chance is on snow already on the ground, shady areas, or at night.  I mention that because most of the snow in the forecast for lake level is on Wednesday during the day.  

On the mountains above 7,000 feet, the storm will be mostly all snow.  We could see several inches of snow accumulate on the mountains.  It will likely be wetter/thicker snow below 8,000 feet, and drier/softer snow above 8,000 feet.  Here is the updated snowfall forecast.

The NAM and GFS ensemble mean runs now have over an inch of total precip along the crest, so we will have to watch to see if the storm trends a little wetter as we get closer.

Quick Break:

We could see a quick break Thursday night into Friday.  Maybe some sun for Friday morning before clouds increase as the next storm approaches for Friday night.

Friday Night - Saturday Storm:

A quick moving storm could push through Friday night into Saturday.  Snow levels could start around 7,000 feet and then fall below lake level with the cold front.  Here is the total precipitation forecast on the WPC model through Saturday.

We could see several more inches of snow on the mountains.  The 10-day snowfall forecast is on the individual ski resort pages.

The trough over CA could stay in place into the week of the 25th keeping the storm door open. 

The GFS shows another system possible next Sunday into Monday, and then a break in storms with the next storm the 26th-27th staying just to our north.  The European model has a break next Sunday, and then a strong storm with heavy snow from the 25th-27th.  We will have to watch closely as we get closer to get a better idea of what will happen, but overall the pattern looks to stay unsettled through the 27th.

Here is the GFS ensemble mean model forecast for total precipitation through the end of the month, showing 3-4 inches of total precipitation over Tahoe the next two weeks.

Fantasy Range:

We may see a break in storms the last few days of March.  But the long-range models show high pressure up near Alaska and lower heights over CA, with the storm track into CA the first week of April.

The CFSv2 shows a wet April for California...

It also shows a wet May...

It will be harder to get a big snowstorm going into April, but we could continue to see unsettled weather with a lack of prolonged dry spells.  Of course, long-range forecasts tend to be pretty unreliable...

Stay tuned...BA

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