Update 3 PM:

The cold front moved through midday and the heavy precipitation drug down snow levels as expected.  For a short period of time, we actually saw snow levels all the way down to lake level and Truckee around 6,000 feet! Above 7k we saw accumulating snow.

Below is the first live forecast video of the season I shot around 1 PM up at mid-mountain at Sugar Bowl.

This got me stoked for the upcoming season and more snow chasing!

From 7 AM:

We can see the band of precipitation associated with the cold front moving through northern CA this morning.

We should see some rain reaching the mountains northwest of the lake by midmorning, and then moving across the Tahoe basin midday through early afternoon.

This is a fairly strong cold front for this time of year.  We could see a couple of hours of heavy rain as the front moves through.  The latest forecast model runs are showing up to an inch of total precipitation near the crest.  

If that was all snow we could see up to 10 inches of snow on the mountains.  But the ground is warm and snow levels will be starting up around 9,000 feet.  A few days ago the forecast models were showing snow levels dipping as low as 7,000 feet.  This morning they show freezing levels bottoming out around 9,000 feet as the front moves through, so the heavy precipitation may drag snow levels down to 8,000 feet, or slightly lower in spots during the heaviest precipitation.

I would expect on average up to an inch or two of snow on the colder surfaces above 8,000 feet by this afternoon.  Under the heaviest precipitation areas above 9,000 feet along the crest, we could see a bit more.

We should clear out later this afternoon with sunny skies expected for Tuesday.  Highs only in the 50's today at lake level rebounding into the 60's for Tuesday, but overnight lows will dip below freezing in the valleys so we could see some frost.

Another Cool System:

Wednesday another system moves through with a chance for showers.  This system looks weaker and we may just see a few scattered showers.  It will bring more cool air with highs dropping back into the 50's at lake level and 40's in the upper elevations for Wednesday and Thursday as we clear out.

Going into the weekend we are expecting drier weather as high pressure builds in.  Highs should warm into the 60's at lake level, and maybe to around 70 for Sunday.

There is another cool trough swinging through on Monday, but it looks like it may stay to our north.  We may just cool a few degrees.

For the long-range starting next Tuesday, we may see high pressure build in over the West Coast bringing back warmer and drier weather into the last week of September.

Stay tuned...BA

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