Update Thursday A.M.

Happy St. Patrick's Day.  Not change to the forecast from yesterday for the storm for Sun-Mon over the past 24 hours.  We will take a look again tomorrow.  Have fun and stay safe.

Summary:

Sunny and mild weather through Saturday with highs in the 50's.  Then on Sunday the clouds and winds should increase ahead of the next storm.  Precip should move in Sunday night with high snow levels.  Snow levels come down near lake level Monday.  A second wave may keep the snowfall going into Tuesday.  We could see several inches to over a foot of snow on the mountains with this storm.

Then high pressure builds back in through the end of the month.

Details:

Over the last 48 hours the forecast models have been trending towards a wetter scenario with the systems for Sunday and Tuesday that we have been watching.  They are pushing the trough into the West Coast now instead of keeping it offshore and just sending in weak waves.  

The initial surge of moisture should arrive Sunday night.  Snow levels are 8000-9000 feet to start and then fall Sunday night.  The models show them near lake level Monday behind the cold front.  Then there is fairly good agreement that a 2nd wave keeps the snow showers going into Tuesday.

The models are all wetter with each run the last few runs.  This morning there is decent agreement in up to 2 inches of liquid near the crest, and up to 1 inch on the East side of the lake.

With the snow levels starting high that will cut into snowfall amounts.  The air behind the front doesn't look that cold either.  It is a day early to forecast snowfall through Tuesday, but here is the initial snowfall forecast for Sunday night through Tuesday.

We need more snow as the latest snowpack survey only jumped to 93% after the last storm series.  The Northern Sierra 8-Station Index however has 130% of average precip for the water year.  We are only 4 tenths of an inch shy of the average precip for the entire water year which is great news.

Long-Range:

By next Wednesday the ridge is building off the coast again with dry weather expected through the end of the month.

The climate models are still hinting that we could see more storms in April.  Here is the CFSv2 through the end of March.

and then for April...

So I don't think that we are done yet with a storm coming this weekend, and then possibly some storms in April.

Stay tuned...BA

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