In yesterday's post I mentioned that the forecast models had become wetter for Monday-Tuesday next week, but that I would wait another 24 hours before I jumped on that forecast.  I normally do that when there is a big flip in the forecast models.  I wait 2 days to start changing my forecast to make sure it is not a glitch.

This morning is a good example of why I do that.  Even the GFS model was wetter on a couple of runs yesterday, but this morning both the GFS and the European models are drier with the cold trough for Monday-Tuesday.  The Canadian model is the only one still showing more than a couple tenths of an inch of total precip.

Until then we have a cold front moving through today.  Don't be surprised to see a snow shower someplace around the lake, especially up on the mountain tops.  At best someplace could see a dusting of snow.  Mainly the front brings a return of cold air.

The weekend should be beautiful with lots of sun and milder temperatures.

Now back to Monday-Tuesday.  This cold trough pushing in has very cold air.  When I ran the numbers this morning, even with the lack of moisture temperatures near 10 degrees Monday night could squeeze out a few inches of very light fluffy blower pow.

We will keep an eye on the trajectory of the this system because it still could change and pull in more moisture by the time we get to Monday.

Here is the latest GFS total precip forecast showing the meager amounts.

The very cold air should stick around until Thursday.  Then we may see the winds pick up ahead of a larger storm moving into the Northeast Pacific by the end of next week.  This is still 9 days away so I don't want to get into too many details, but all of the models show that this storm could pull in a decent amount of moisture from across the Pacific and push it into Northern CA next Friday.

There could be another storm behind that one going into the week of the 12th.  These aren't showing up as really wet storms, but they could get us out of the 10 day dry spell.

Here is a look at the 2 week GFS total precip forecast.  Not for specifics but to show that the storms starting day 10 could start to get a little wetter.

Until then we have 2 cold fronts to deal with...

Stay tuned...BA

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