The storm yesterday performed as expected, with the exception of a band of heavy snowfall that hit well Southwest of the lake near Bear Valley & Dodge Ridge.

Here are the totals for the last 2 storms, the month, and the season for the Upper mountains.

I took to the family to Alpine yesterday and it was a fun little powder day.  I think the best part was the winds were so low while it was snowing.

A break today with some clouds around and a stray snow shower is not out of the question.  Winds are light today, so good skiing conditions.

For Sunday a weak system moves through to our North.  The European model is wetter than the GFS for this system.  We could see a coating to an inch on the mountains, with 1-3 inches near the crest.  The winds also pick up with gusts to 55 mph by afternoon up top.

Sunday night the strong storm begins to move in.  One of the changes this morning is that the snow levels may rise faster than we were thinking before, possibly to 7000 feet more quickly as the precip moves in.  On the mountains above 7000 feet we could see 2-8 inches by Monday morning.

As the atmospheric river takes aim at Tahoe we expect heavy precip rates Monday into Monday night.  Winds will gust over 100 mph on the mountain tops.  The GFS is wetter than the European model Monday, but the European model is wetter Sunday and Sunday night.  So they are only off by about half an inch in total through Monday.  Then the same for Monday night.  The other change this morning is all the models keep the precip going longer into Tuesday before tapering off.

The big question is the snow levels.  This morning's freezing level forecast on the models shows snow levels sitting between 7000-7500 feet Sunday night through Monday, and lowering to 6500 feet later Monday night.  So that is the 3rd change with the storm this morning, slower arrival of the colder air Monday night with snow levels possibly not reaching lake level until early Tuesday morning.  

With the warmer nature of the storm I would put snow levels at 7500 feet Monday, but with the very heavy precip the snow levels could drag down closer to 7000 feet, especially on the East side of the lake.  So for my forecast I have all snow at 7k but very wet with low snow ratios.  Then snow to lake level for Tuesday before the storm wraps up.  

Here is the forecast by 12 hour period. (4 a.m. - 4 p.m.)

The total forecast so you don't have to break out the calculator.

The adjusted snow ratios based on latest freezing level & temp forecast.

There is a final weaker and colder system moving through Tuesday night into Wednesday.  The models have been trending drier with this storm.  The GFS has only 1-3 inches and the European has up to a foot near the crest.  So here is the averaged forecast.

Altogether over the next 4 days the total precip amounts are the same on the 2 models with up to 5 inches of liquid on the East side of the lake, and up to 7.3 inches along the crest.  The Canadian and NAM model runs are drier, so I would lean towards the lower to middle side of the forecast.

Here is the GFS total precip forecast through Wednesday.

Long-Range:

It looks like we may transition into a colder and drier pattern next Friday into the week of the 27th.  We could see several inside slider type systems from the North with light snowfall amounts.

The end of the month into March we may transition to a milder and dry pattern unless the jet stream can undercut the ridge into CA.

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. my schedule tomorrow may affect when I can post.

Geography Key:

East

Mt. Rose, Heavenly, Diamond Peak

Central

Northstar

West

Tahoe Donner, Homewood, Bear Valley, Dodge Ridge

Crest

Boreal, Donner Ski Ranch, Sugar Bowl, Squaw, Alpine, Sierra, Kirkwood

*Boreal and Donner Ski Ranch are forecast with the "West" mountains in higher snow levels events.

*The snowfall forecasts on the ski resort pages are for the upper mountains at 8000'.