The low bringing up moisture with this storm continued to trend further South over the past 24 hours.  Also, the flow was more from the South-Southeast yesterday and overnight keeping most of the heaviest precipitation to the South and West of the Tahoe basin.  I was noticing that trend on the models yesterday morning which is why I continued to drop the snowfall forecast.

Yesterday afternoon/evening as some of the heaviest precip was starting to move in we saw temperatures steadily drop.  By 5 p.m. when I was doing a Facebook live from Mt. Rose Highway summit snow levels were down around 7900' around the lake.  Then overnight as the precipitation moved out the temperatures rose again and snow levels jumped back up above 8,000 feet.  Then another wave of heavy precip moved through during the early morning hours dropping temperatures and snow levels again.  This time briefly dipping close to 7000-7500 feet.  Then this morning as the precip moved out again temperatures and snow levels have jumped back up again. 

Overall that is exactly what we were expecting.  Snow levels to fluctuate around 8,000 feet overnight and through today.  Here is a look at the temperatures where you see the dip with the shots of heavier precip.

Below is the radar from overnight where you can see the one wave of heavier precip that moved through.

I believe that is what is accounting for most of the snow being reported at the ski resorts this morning.  You can see on the webcam at the base of Sugar Bowl that about an inch did make it down near 7,000 feet overnight NW of the lake.

The final forecast yesterday morning was for 0-1 inches of snow above 7,000 feet, and 3-9 inches above 8,000 feet.  Below are the totals so far as of the 6 a.m. reports this morning.  The ski resorts that measure below 8,000 feet are reporting 0-2 inches, and the ski resorts measuring at or above 8,000 feet are reporting 3-7 inches so far.

Kirkwood is further South so they were able to pick up a few extra inches yesterday as they were able to pick up some of the heavier precip that didn't make it further North.  Overall this is close to what we expected so far.  We knew that the resorts that measure under 8k could come up a little short if the snow levels stayed at or just above 8k, which they did most of the last 24 hours.  Above 8k the ski resorts are either in the forecast range already or about an inch or two short so far, but we do have a chance for a little more snow today into this evening.

Seems like a pretty consistent snowfall outside of Kirkwood with 0-2 inches above 7k at most of the mountains this moring, and 3-4 inches above 8k.  It is foggy this morning.

The forecast models are showing another band of precipitation possibly moving through later this morning with showers lingering around into this evening.  Snow levels look to continue to fluctuate around 8,000 feet.  If the forecast models are right and we do see more showers today we could see an additional 1-3 inches of snow above 8,000 feet.  So we will have to watch that today.  Some colder air does look to work in tonight but not until things are clearing out.  We will have the final totals and compare to the forecast tomorrow morning.

We are close to 30% of the way through the ski season with only about 13% of seasonal snowfall averages so far on the upper mountains, and less on the lower mountains.  So we need the storms to continue and to get colder!

That won't happen over the next 5 days.  We have high pressure starting to build back in with the storm track bumping to our North tomorrow.  Then really building in for the weekend.  High temperatures will rebound by Thursday through the weekend into the 40's on the upper mountains and 50's on the lower mountains and at lake level.

The forecast models are split on whether the next series of storms start by Monday night or holds off until Wednesday night next week.  I will push that analysis below into the Extend Forecast.

The change in the pattern next week has been well advertised as we have been talking about it for at least 10 days now.  We initially thought we could see a change with the MJO moving through the Indian Ocean towards the Maritime Continent.  We knew that could help with a pattern change.  Then the long-range models responded over a week ago showing a trough pushing into the West Coast next week.  They have and continue to be consistent and in good agreement on that by the middle of next week and beyond.

We have details to iron out once we get into the 7 day range.  We are within that range for Monday night, but we have a few differences on the forecast models.  With the trough over the East next week a little deeper and slower to slide off the coast than originally forecast, we are seeing the GFS delay the trough nosing into the West Coast until Wednesday night.

Meanwhile, the European model has been very consistent on showing the trough pushing in Monday night.  Below is the GFS (top) and Euro (bottom) for Monday.

They both have almost identical setups of ridges and trough except that the Euro noses the trough into Northern CA by Monday night.  The European model has a majority of ensemble runs supporting it.  A minority of GFS ensemble runs show precip by Monday night.  The Canadian model agrees with the GFS on holding off on storms until Wednesday night.  So we will have to watch and see.  The European model is usually one of the better models in the long-range and it has been consistent.

It's a two day difference, but complete model agreement that by Thursday the trough is over the West Coast.

Once the storm do break into the West Coast next week we will have to watch where the jet stream sets up and the track of the storms.  These storms will have colder air with them so if they dig down into CA we should see falling snow levels with the storms.  They should be able to dig further South later next week and into the weekend of the 20th.

We should also finally see colder air move down over the West Coast with this trough.  Here is the forecast temperature anomaly from the EPS ensemble mean run for next Friday.

Like I said we won't get into details on storms until the 7 day window, but the 10 day total precipitation forecasts from the GFS and European models through next Friday are starting to look pretty good.

The Euro is wetter with the earlier start to the storms next week.

If this pattern sets up right it is the best pattern for significant snowfall we have seen yet this season.  But that isn't saying much...  Looking at the fantasy range beyond 10 days, there is decent agreement on the ensemble mean runs that the trough stays over the West Coast into last week of January.  That would keep the storm door open.

Will Winter finally show up next week?  I sure hope so...

Stay tuned...BA

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