I feel like the anticipation of a cold storm after warm storms in November, a lack of storms in December, and warm storms to start January has everyone on the edge of their seats.  From my side I just calculate the numbers daily and update the forecast.  I can't forecast how you should feel, but I do want snow as much as you do.  This storm feels over-hyped and over-anticipated around town for a moderate strength 10-20 inch storm, but we saw the same with the arrival of the first storms in the past snow drought years.

I know some of you are hanging on every model run, but like I mentioned yesterday, I try not to do that on my forecasts.  I watch for 24 hours and keep the averages logged.  There tends to be much less variability that way.  Looking back at the high end forecasts I have put out for 8k along the crest this week so far, they have been: 20", 22", 19", and today 21".  So over the course of 4 days the forecasts has only wavered between 19-22 inches, that's only a 3 inch difference.  So I may be dealing with the anticipation a little better than some of you, but I feel it for sure!

Early this morning the weak system moving through did exactly what we expected.  The forecast was for a dusting up to an inch.  The resorts this morning are reporting trace amounts up to an inch.  For the rest of today we have clouds slightly cooler temps.

Looking at the latest model runs for the storm on Thursday there are a few adjustments.  The main one is to slow it down a few more hours with arrival of the snow possibly holding off until Thursday evening.  Yesterday we discussed the European model had trended a bit drier with the storm with a high end of 1.5 inches of total liquid along the crest.  That held until the latest 12z run a tad drier with up to 1.25 inches of liquid.

The Canadian model is matching that.  The NAM and the WPC's model are sitting at 1.5 inches still.  The GFS which trended drier yesterday afternoon and last night, has trended wetter again on the 12z run back to the 2 inches of liquid it had yesterday morning.

When I look at little closer at the hour by hour forecast it looks like there isn't much variance with the total precipitation with the cold front moving through Thursday night.  But the European model has drier air working in on Friday behind the front with not much in the way of additional accumulations from post-frontal snow showers.  The GFS fires up decent snow showers through the day on Friday adding several more inches of snow. 

With the cold air that is moving behind this front off the Pacific picking up some moisture, I have a hard time believing the snow showers just cut-off behind the front.  I think the European model could be under forecasting a little for Friday, but we'll see.  This always puts us in a strange spot when only 2 days before a storm we have a variance 3/4 of an inch of liquid on the forecasts.

The snow levels may start around 8,000 feet Thursday afternoon before falling to lake level Thursday evening.   So I'm not worried too much about snow levels with this storm on the mountains.  The snow showers Friday seem to be the wildcard.  For the updated forecast with the GFS trending wetter and the European model trending drier the forecast doesn't really change much from the last few days.

It's still a 10-20 inch storm like we have been forecasting all week.  If you ran only the European model it would be a 7-15 inch storm.  With the other models slightly wetter than the Euro, for now I would just lean towards the lower end of the forecast, and then hope the snow showers on Friday drop several inches.  There is a reason we have a low and high range on the forecasts, don't just look at the high end.  The best chance to catch good powder turns will be Friday.

We may have a break over the weekend.  Then the next storm could move in by Sunday night.  I'm getting a lot of requests to put out the snowfall forecast for Sunday-Monday.  We are within the 5 day range Sunday, but a little outside for Monday.  Add to that a big variance in the forecast between the models for Monday.

It looks like the GFS has the jet stream taking a direct aim at Tahoe Sunday night into Monday.  The Canadian model agrees with the GFS this time.  The European model aims the jet stream to our North and is a bit weaker.  The latest GFS run is still tapping some moisture from back near Hawaii.  Snow levels look to start and stay low this time.

The GFS has another 1.5 inches of liquid on top of the first storm.

The European model brushes us with only up to a quarter inch of additional liquid as it keeps the heaviest precip to our North.

I will go out on a limb here and put out an initial snowfall forecast, but know that it comes from the average of two very different numbers.  

If the GFS and Canadian models are right we could see more than this and if the European is right then much less.  Hoping the gap starts to close tomorrow.

There is another system that is approaching the coast by the middle of next week.  Again, the GFS is a direct hit adding more precip and snowfall to the forecast.

Like the Sunday night system, the Euro is weaker and further North adding only light amounts again.

So the ingredients are there for 2 more decent snowstorms Sunday-Thursday, but we will need a the storms to stay far enough South for a direct hit, and hope they tap some good moisture.

Fantasy Range:

Pretty good agreement on the forecast for high pressure to build in the weekend of the 27th with some drier and maybe milder air moving in.

It still looks like it will be a progressive ridge with a trough possibly digging back into the West Coast the week of the 28th.

So the break may be short-lived.  A little disagreement on the long-range models of how deep of a trough there is.

Looking at the European weeklies yesterday, they forecast a Western trough for most of the time through the first two weeks of February.  Then they have a flip in the pattern around mid-February back to an Eastern trough and Western ridge for the 2nd half of February.  That doesn't mean we don't get storms, but it would be a warmer pattern.

Stay tuned...BA

You can see where the ski resorts are currently sitting for snowfall and base versus average on our cool charts on the ski resort pages! 

You can also set Powder Alerts for your favorite mountains!  Sign Up for an Account, there's a free option as well!

And don't Forget to Download the OpenSnow Mobile App to access powder info on the go!