Yesterday's storm, as expected, delivered highest totals to Southern Utah. Another system to bring snowfall to the state Wednesday night into Thursday. Additional storms possible in late weekend into early next week. Colder temperatures also likely.
Kids Ski Free in Sun Valley
Short Term Forecast
For the most part, yesterday's storm went as expected. Most areas in northern Utah saw 0-3" while southern Utah picked up the most snow. Brian Head reporting 10" this morning with snow showers just clearing out. The one surprise was in the Cottonwoods where snow fell for most of the day and allowed for free refills 6" being reported in BCC with 8" in LCC. A nice surprise. Yesterday I did state the possibility for this, "The Wasatch can expect an inch or two of accumulation. There's a possibility that a few select areas could see higher totals if banding of precip develops." I know we're all dying for some big storms into the region, but the great thing about having a series of weaker storms is that your expectations are generally low and they can often surprise you. Saturday was a pleasant surprise, Sunday skied great, yesterday was a powder day in the Cottonwoods, and today should have plenty of leftovers...
Today thru the day tomorrow is mostly a break in the action. Breezes and clouds will be on the increase on Wednesday as our next system drops into the region. This is a weak storm without much energy. It is tapping into a decaying low off the baja coast that could infuse it with a bit of moisture. Mountains of Utah should see snow fall for at least a short period late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures will drop with the cold front and snow levels should be below 5000 feet down to most valley floors.
As mentioned, the storm is weak and generally probably just 3-6" of accumulation can be expected. There is a decent northwest flow behind the front which could enhance totals in the Cottonwoods. Currently the 12-km NAM is optimistic for the Cottonwoods, showing upwards of 10" of new snow:
Most of that should fall late Wednesday night. Thursday should be a good powder day if we can indeed squeeze out as much snow as the NAM is suggesting.
We clear out again for Friday into Saturday. Then, it looks like Sunday into early next week we should see additional chances for snow. Not much in the way of model agreement and the Euro and GFS show as much as 48 hours difference as to when we start to see snow. We'll have to keep an eye on the models over the coming runs to see if we can pinpoint details on this storm.
Beyond early next week, it looks like we'll continue to have a ridge out in the Gulf of Alaska. That's going to force storm energy to ride over the top and drop into our region out of the north. The general trend is that the axis for this ridge will very slowly shift west. That could give storms a more over-water trajectory and be able to pick up more moisture.
10 days ago things were looking very bleak with not much in the forecast. Right now, we're in the middle of a 10-day period where we've got 4 systems. Yep, they're mostly weak systems but it's certainly better than nothing. And, if it's further consolation, the uber-long range tools are currently pretty dang optimistic for late in the month into early March.
Evan | OpenSnow