Busy week coming up! We have a storm moving in on Sunday and stronger follow on storm a day later. This may be the first time that calling in sick could be a good idea! Let's get into it.
Short Term Forecast
The storm today certainly overperformed what I thought was possible. Looks like 2 inches or so at all resorts in the area. Gotta love that! The next storm arrives tomorrow late morning. There are really no changes from the post on Thursday. This storm will be cold and deliver a good shot of moisture. The plume below is showing one inch of liquid by Monday evening equating to right around 15 inches. That is a pretty good liquid to snow ratio so the snow will be pretty blower.
These plumes tend to over forecast snow totals so I still like my initial thoughts of 8-12 inches for Tamarack and Brundage by Monday evening. I expect lesser amounts of 6-10 inches at Bogus. Just know that with these cold of temps and with a solid amount of moisture in the air we could see higher totals. Especially along the West Mountains (Tamarack). Moore's Creek should score really good totals as well. Unfortunately, Sun Valley just doesn't do well with a storm approaching directly from the west so they will see much lower totals than the mountains to their west.
Tuesday will be a bit of a tweener day. Should be some follow on showers and clearing skies. Will be a gorgeous and cold day for riding!
The next storm moves in Wednesday late morning and lasts through the day on Thursday. This is going to be a much stronger storm with a bit of an AR component. Initially the storm will move in from the west but will then pivot and the AR will move in from the southwest. This hose of moisture will be aimed at our region through Thursday. Temperatures again look really good and freezing levels top out at only 4k feet.
I really like the setup here. Cold temps + AR = lots of snow. The models are pretty bullish too. Our internal plumes are showing 1+ inches of liquid at Bogus with about 1.5 inches of liquid at Brundage and Tamarack. Check out the precipitation forecast below for 48 hours ending mid day on Friday!
Right now I would say to expect another 12 inches+ of snow with this storm at all locations. This should be an equal opportunity storm with even Sun Valley getting similar amounts to the other resorts. I will post in a few days and give more detailed numbers.
The extended forecast is a bit of a conundrum. The Euro and it's ensemble members bring in another storm next weekend. The GFS is dry for next weekend but the below graphic shows all the GFS ensemble members and their precipitation forecasts over the next 10 days:
As you can see, about half of the GFS members call for a storm and about half send us dry. So it really is up in the air (pun intended) as to what happens next weekend. Hopefully we get a bit more clarity in the coming days. Think snowy thoughts!!