Snow has already started up at Tamarack and Brundage. Looks like Tamarack already has 3+ inches. Good news is that snow will continue through the night and into tomorrow. Even better news is that another strong storm is going to impact our region starting Wednesday morning. Only issue is that there is next to no agreement between any of the models. Let's get into it!
Short Term Forecast
I still really like my forecast of 8-12 inches at Tamarack/Brundage and 6-10 inches at Bogus. That really hasn't changed at all. If you look at the precipitation map below through Tuesday evening you can see that another half inch plus of liquid is predicted for Tamarack/Brundage and similar amounts for Bogus.
Multiply that 0.5 times a 15:1 snow to liquid ratio and you end up right around where I forecasted (add in the snow that has already fallen too). Not much more to add!
Next storm noses into our region on Wednesday morning. This will be a long duration event with snow expected every day through Sunday. Temperatures look pretty good for the whole storm. It does look like we get warmer Pacific air nosing in at the start of the storm on Wednesday and lasting into Thursday evening with snow levels topping out at 5k feet. By Friday early morning temperatures will crash again with snow levels bottoming out below 1k feet.
I expect the initial showers on Wednesday to be extremely inconsistent due to the nature of the AR. As it starts up in northern Washington and moves its way down the coast the northern regions (Tamarack/Brundage) will pick up some of the moisture flowing off of the main AR. By Wednesday evening the AR will be pointed directly at our area from the southwest, and we will be getting significant snowfall in the mountains. And with temperatures being pretty darn cold for an AR of this magnitude, we will be getting absolutely hammered all night on Wednesday and through the day on Thursday.
As far as totals go.... phew. To be honest there isn't alot of certainty. We know we will be getting in an AR and we know temps will be relatively cold for an AR of this magnitude. The Opensnow algorithms are spitting out number that seem a bit obscene at first glance. Two and a half feet from Wednesday into Friday morning. The plumes at Big Creek summit are even more obscene with between 30 and 50 inches into Friday.
As you can tell it is really hard to get a measure of how much snow to get. What I will say is that I think a minimum of two feet in all locations is doable and locally higher amounts.
A quick note on Bogus and SV. Bogus certainly can do really well in a setup like this. I fully expect Sun Valley to get hammered by a couple feet as well. Those two locations will probably start out a bit slower than Tamarack or Brundage but should catch up quickly once we start getting southwest flow into the area.
Friday, Saturday and Sunday are a bit up in the air as far as the outlook goes. The Euro and Canadian models (and their ensembles) all show another significant snowstorm for Friday and into Saturday. The GFS isn't fully on board with that. Though about half of its ensemble members do show snow for those days. I will keep you all posted as we get closer.
The GFS and Euro ensembles show that we could move into a colder and drier pattern like we were earlier this month. Not a bad place to be though. Let's figure out what the forecast is for this weekend before we worry too much beyond that. :)
Look for another post after the 12z Euro (around 2pm) comes out tomorrow!