Last night's storm underperformed a little bit. Bogus reported 2 inches though they are up to 4 now and Tamarack/Brundage reported 4 inches. Storm energy is still moving through the Long valley so I could see both those locations picking up a few more inches of fluff. Especially with the cold temperatures. All eyes are on the storm starting Wednesday so let's dig into it!
Short Term Forecast
Not a ton of changes overnight other than temperatures. The forecast on snow levels is now down below 4k feet for the entirety of the storm so that is good news! But man.... this storm is a whopper. As the short range models come into range we are getting a bit more clarity. The storm will start to impact our region very early Wednesday morning with flakes falling at all resorts. It looks like light snow all day Wednesday and then it may taper off late evening only to return with a vengeance on Thursday.
The Opensnow forecast for Wednesday I think is a bit conservative. Everything I am seeing (other than the GFS) is bringing in about 1 inch of liquid through the day on Wednesday. As you can see in the 12k NAM right around 1 inch is forecasted for areas up north as well as the general Bogus Basin/Boise Mountains.
I do think this is a bit overdone and would like to stay a bit conservative due to how much variability in the forecasts right now. I think 4-8 is doable by midnight on Wednesday at most resorts including Bogus and Sun Valley. This is a pretty equal opportunity storm which I love.
It is going to straight up nuke all day Thursday. Temps look great with the AR pointed directly at our area from the southwest. Again though.... the forecasted snow amounts are highly variable. There just is not alot of agreement. Again looking at the 12k NAM down below we can see that there is a good amount of snow falling between the image above and the image below.
At least another inch plus of liquid in most locations. Assuming a 12:1 snow to liquid ration that would be right around another foot from 12am Thursday to 11pm Thursday. I think that is easily doable. Let's say a general 10-16 inches at Tamarack and Brundage with slightly lesser amounts of 8-12 inches at Bogus. The central Boise mountains do look like they will get hammered pretty hard too so Moore's Creek Summit and the associated peaks should get 10-16 as well.
We should get another few inches of snow after 12am on Friday but not too much. The storm will be mostly cleared out by the time the sun comes up.
We should have great weather next Friday and Saturday so enjoy the pow! I think the best day to ride if you want to avoid weekend crowds is going to be Friday. Obviously with this much snow falling in a short amount of time be wary of the backcountry. Keep an eye on the avalanche centers and their forecasts!
All models show some sort of storm from Sunday into Tuesday. The GFS has a stronger storm approaching from the southwest and the Euro has a weak storm from the southwest but a stronger storm hitting us from the northwest. Either way it is a really cold solution. Temperatures are going to plunge well below averages so any snow that falls is going to be absolute blower.
Further beyond that, it does look like we move into a colder and slightly drier pattern. Though it does seem to stay active with shots of snow every few days. By the time we get to mid-month (plus or minus a few days), the ensembles are showing that we should get back to a stormier pattern. Let's get through this next few days before we deep dive into the super extended forecast.
Think snowy thoughts!
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