Recent Snowfall:

Snow reports are limited this early in the season as many ski resorts are not issuing snow reports. However, based on the ski resorts that are reporting, it appears the heaviest snow from Tuesday's storm fell across the higher elevations of the Coast Range, as well as the Okanagan region and Revelstoke area.

Here are a few of the snow totals being reported on Wednesday morning:

• 21 cm - Big White
• 21 cm - Powder King
• 19 cm - Silver Star
• 18 cm - Whistler
• 16 cm - Revelstoke
• 11 cm - Sun Peaks
• 5 cm - Kicking Horse
  

Forecast for Wednesday to Friday:

On Wednesday, a drying trend will occur across Southern BC while warmer temperatures are also expected as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the south. Highs will range from 0 to +5ºC at Coast Range ski areas and 0 to -5ºC at Interior ski areas.

Meanwhile, the storm track will shift northward into the Northern Coast Range (including Shames Mountain) on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night as a plume of rich Pacific moisture known as an atmospheric river sets up over this area.

Snow levels will rise to 750-900 meters (2,500-3,000 ft.) at Shames Mountain as warm air arrives, resulting in a rain/snow mix up to mid-mountain. Colder air will then arrive on Thursday, causing snow levels to fall to 600 meters or lower, resulting in all-snow (heavy at times) for Shames.

The northern half of Vancouver Island will also see rain from this storm on Wednesday night and Thursday, but snow levels will remain above the summit of Mt. Washington. 

On Thursday night and Friday, the storm will work its way into Southern BC but will be weakening a bit. 

Snow levels will start out around 1,500 meters (5k feet) at Whistler on Thursday night, but a cold front will also arrive early Friday morning with snow levels of around 900 meters (3k feet) at Whistler during the day on Friday.

Across the North Shore Mountains (Cypress, Grouse, etc.), snow levels will start out around 1,800 meters (6k feet) and will gradually fall to around 900 meters (3k feet) by Friday afternoon, though moisture will be limited by the time a changeover from rain to snow occurs.

The Coast Range of Southern BC will see most of its snow (and rain) on Friday morning before decreasing on Friday afternoon.

Across the Interior, the heaviest and most widespread snowfall will occur from midday Friday through early Friday evening, before tapering off to light snow showers later Friday night. Snow levels will stay below ski resort base areas on Friday (except the bottom of Revy where rain will mix in initially). 

Snow Totals:

I'm expecting 5-15 cm (2-6") of new snow for Whistler, Coquihalla Pass, and Manning Park, while the North Shore Mountains will only see a dusting once snow levels drop low enough. Much heavier totals can be expected further north toward Bella Coola. 

Across the Interior, I'm also expecting 5-15 cm (2-6") for Revelstoke, Rogers Pass, Kicking Horse, Whitewater, and Fernie, while all other Interior ski resorts will see anywhere from a dusting to 10 cm (4"). 

Northern BC will be hit the hardest by this storm, with the heaviest snow expected Thursday followed by additional snow showers on Friday. Snow will also pick up again on Friday night as the next storm reaches Northwest BC.

For Thursday AM to Saturday AM, I'll go with 30-60 cm (12-24") at Shames Mountain and 15-30 cm (6-12") for Powder King. 

Forecast for Saturday - Sunday:

A stronger storm is on track for this weekend with snow arriving across Southwest BC (Whistler et al.) on Saturday afternoon and continuing through Saturday night, with possibly some lingering snow on Sunday morning.

The Interior should see most of its action on Saturday night and Sunday morning with snow tapering off later in the day on Sunday.

Early indications are that snow levels will start out in the 900-1,000 meter range (3-3.5k feet) across Southwest BC on Saturday before falling well below ski resort base areas later Saturday night as a strong cold front arrives. The Interior should not see any snow level issues.

Early Snowfall Outlook for Sat-Sun:

Although it's early, we are within 5 days now, so I'll go with an early forecast of 15-35 cm (6-14") across the Coast Range and 10-25 cm (4-10") across the Interior. These early projections are the same for both Southern BC (most ski areas) and Northern BC (fewer ski areas).

Outlook for Monday (11/28) and Beyond:

Cold air will settle into place behind the weekend storm with a lull in the action expected on Monday. After that, the next storm is likely to arrive in the Tuesday (11/29) to Wednesday (11/30) timeframe. This could be another good storm for Southern BC and snow levels should also be very low, possibly approaching sea level.

We're still close to a week away from this storm, though, so nothing is set in stone yet. Stay tuned.

As we head into early December, we may enter a colder and drier pattern again as the main storm track shift further south into the U.S. and high pressure sets up off of the BC Coast.

We could still see some weaker storms sneak into Southern BC during the first 5 days or so of December, and whatever snow we do see should involve low snow levels and good quality powder snow.

Confidence is still fairly low for early December, however, as models have been fluctuating back and forth quite a bit, so changes to these projections are possible moving forward. 

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Friday (11/25).

ALAN SMITH