Forecast for Saturday to Saturday Night:

Coastal BC:

Snow will begin on Saturday morning at the leading edge of a cold front, with locally heavy snowfall rates expected through the afternoon hours and into the early evening before tapering off overnight. Snow levels will be below base areas, ranging from 300-600 meters (1-2k feet).

I'm expecting snow totals to range from 10-25 cm (4-10") for Whistler and the North Shore Mountains, and 5-15 cm (2-6") for Mt. Washington and Manning Park. 

Saturday afternoon will offer some of the deepest conditions with storm skiing in full effect, which will include gusty southwest winds and poor visibility. Sunday morning will offer leftovers with lighter winds and improved visibility.

Temperatures will remain below freezing on Sunday with gradually decreasing clouds and snow conditions should stay in good shape through the afternoon.

Interior BC:

Dry conditions will prevail through most of the day on Saturday with increasing southwest winds during the afternoon. Snow will begin from west to east by late Saturday afternoon and into Saturday evening with most of the snow falling during the overnight hours.

At this point, I'm expecting a general 2-10 cm (1-4") across the board for the Interior by first thing Sunday morning. Snow levels will easily stay below base areas with cold air in place.

Lingering snow showers will remain possible on Sunday morning before drying out in the afternoon. While not a big storm, Sunday AM will be the best time to enjoy some freshies. Temperatures will stay well below freezing through Sunday afternoon with lighter winds compared to Saturday.

Northern BC:

This will be a minor event for Northern BC with snow totals ranging from 2-10 cm (1-4") at Shames Mountain and Powder King. Hudson Bay Mountain will pick up a dusting to a few centimeters.

Forecast for Monday to Tuesday:

The pattern is tricky for this period as back-to-back storms will be tracking from northwest to southeast across Northern and Central BC. However, models are in poor agreement regarding the southern extent of the storm track and whether or not Southern BC (where most ski areas are located) will see meaningful snow.

Here are a couple of snowfall projections to highlight the uncertainty. The Canadian Model is keeping most of the action over Northern BC with the Cariboos and Northern Rockies being most favored, with "scraps" at best for the Powder Highway.

The European Model, on the other hand, is projecting the storm track to dip further south into Southern BC with accumulations for the Powder Highway, Okanagan resorts, and even the Southwest Coast Range.

I don't have a good sense either way of how far south the storm will track. But if we do get a more favorable southerly track, then areas I would keep an eye on include Revelstoke, the Okanagan resorts (especially Apex and Big White), Manning Park, and if (a big if) moisture reaches far enough south, the North Shore Mountains as well as Whitewater and Fernie.

A couple of other things to note in this pattern is that Whistler typically does not do well with northwest winds, so my expectations for meaningful snow are low there.

Also, across Northern BC, Powder King will likely pick up some fresh accumulations, but warmer is expected to reach the Northwest Coast, which could result in rising snow levels and rain issues for Shames Mountain.

We should have a better idea of how this is all looking by the time I write my next forecast on Monday.

I'm expecting dry conditions for Southern BC on Wednesday (Jan 25) as high pressure nudges a bit further north. Temperatures will likely rise above freezing across the Coast Range including Whistler, while the Interior (although warmer) will still see high temps stay several degrees below freezing.

Northern BC could see more snow (and Coast Range rain) on Wednesday, then the next opportunity for snow across Southern BC will be around Thursday (Jan 26) to Friday (Jan 27). This will be another storm involving northwest winds with low confidence on how far south the storm track extends – a similar issue as compared to the Monday-Tuesday storm. Stay tuned...

Heading into the final few days of January, we may see a drying and cooling trend overall. During the first few days of February, high pressure is expected to shift further away from the Coast, allowing for a trough of low pressure to take hold as the dominant pattern across Western North America.

This should result in a transition to a southwest flow with storms likely returning to Southern BC to some extent. Temperatures also look pretty cold, which should result in low snow levels. 

However, I'm seeing hints that the main storm track could favor areas further south in the U.S. (which has been the story for much of the winter), so I would keep an eye on resorts closest to the U.S. border for the best snow potential heading into early February.

Thanks so much for reading and have a great weekend! Next update on Monday (Jan 23).

ALAN SMITH