Welcome to the first post for Chase Powder! Fall colors in the Rockies have been outstanding this year and you will have 3 more days to enjoy them before strong winds and low pressure enter the west. Park City is still showing nice colors. 

Photo: @powderchasersteve via Instagram in Park City on Sunday on my Ibis Ripley. The colors are still good in many areas. That is about to change! 

Our first winter storm of any significance is going to enter the west from Alaska and drop into the Canadian Rockies and PNW by later this week. Cold temps will drop snow levels to near 4,000 feet bringing light snow to Stevens Pass Highway and areas towards the approaches to Mt Baker and Crystal Mountain by Saturday. Moderate snow will likely fall at the Ski areas of Washington and Oregon above 4,000 feet (3-6). The highest amounts are more likely near Stevens Pass where NW-Westerly winds could enhance precipitation Saturday. If a convergence zone forms amounts could exceed 8 inches. Otherwise, this will be a good early season tease for most mountain ranges from Oregon and Washington with even a bit of light snow for the Sierra possible. Areas of BC, and Alberta may see higher amounts (Lake Louise, Castle Mountain). 

For the Rockies, models are not in sync with the European model bringing a stronger wave for late Saturday/Sunday impacting many ski areas. Highlights currently appear to be over Southern Montana (Big Sky), Tetons, and the Wasatch. The American GFS shows a higher emphasis further north over northern Wyoming and southern Montana (A bit less for the Tetons) with decent amounts still for northern Utah. Winds start out strong from the SW (Goodbye fall foliage) and switch to the NW behind the cold front. Initial SW winds will benefit southern Montana (Big Sky) and northern Wyoming. In the Cottonwoods of Utah, it's possible that snow showers continue well into Sunday bringing some upside surprises under NW flow (Snow shoe on Sunday). 

In Colorado, widespread snow will be likely Sunday into Monday. SW winds will favor areas on the western corridor such as Aspen, Crested Butte, Silverton, and even Wolf Creek. These areas, especially the Roaring Fork Valley or higher peaks near Irwin Lodge could see 6-12 inches. Areas further east will grab 3-6 inches. Caveat: We are still 6 days away so I'm going bold to predict totals this early but what the heck, who's chasing right now? These predictions are likely to change. 

Bottom Line: Moderate snow is likely from northern Idaho (Sandpoint), through the panhandle, and northern Montana. Higher amounts are possible in southern Montana, Northern Wyoming, Utah, and central Colorado Likely snow totals in some areas will exceed 6-12 inches in some isolated areas. 3-7 inches are likely in many areas outside the highlighted areas. Models are still 5 days out and will likely change (Look for updates).   

Below: The American model shows widespread snowfall over the west with generally 4-7 inches in many locations and areas of 10 plus inches noted for southern Montana, Wasatch, Tetons (Wildcard), northern Idaho, and central or southern Colorado. The European model shows higher amounts for the Panhandle of Idaho (Vs the northern tier), and a bit less snow for the southern Teton ranges. The province of Alberta in Canada could end up doing very well.  The Sierra gets the glancing blow. 

Below: Wind direction bars for Colorado are SW through Sunday morning before switching to the NW by midday (Upper left map showing NW flow behind the initial front). Initially, southern and central Colorado will be favored through Sunday mid-morning before pushing moisture further north along I-70 however amounts will likely be less east of Glenwood or north of Aspen. Some areas in the Elk or Swatch Range could see the highest amounts (Aspen, Irwin Lodge, Crested Butte). Sometimes Steamboat sneaks up some surprises with SW flow as well. 

Below: Cold temps will be punching down to -10C at 10K feet this weekend (14F). This will bring winter-like conditions to many areas and good snow ratios, especially for the Rockies. Snow levels will be around 4,000 feet so look for some low valley snow. 

Some additional snow is possible early next week for the Pacific Northwest as generally unsettled conditions continue with ripples of moisture moving from the Cascades through the Northern Rockies. A more pronounced system is possible mid-next week that may drag further south and provide a better shot of snowfall for the Sierra. 

Below: Storm #2 entering the PNW by Monday next week. This will likely weaken as it moves from the Cascades into the Rockies taking a similar path. 

Below: Storm #3 mid to late next week (October 27) showing up on the ensembles that might drop further south and bring a better chance of Sierra Pow (Fingers crossed).  Models that far out are likely to change. 

Thanks for following the 1st Chase Powder forecast of the 22/23 season. You can follow my world travel on Instagram @powderchasersteve which will soon be filled with snow pics. 

Powderchaser Steve