There are no significant changes to the forecast for the upcoming storm.

On Saturday morning, the storm is still well to our west with the radar showing snow falling in California and streaking northeastward through Nevada, northwest Utah, southeast Idaho, and northwest Wyoming.

On Saturday here in Colorado, expect sunny and warm weather with on-mountain high temperatures pushing into the upper 30s and low 40s.

Saturday night will be dry, warm, and likely breezy.

On Sunday, you’ll wake up to dry, possibly sunny, and breezy weather.

Then the cold front and snow should hit most mountains on Sunday between 1100 am and 100 pm, and snow will continue through the afternoon and evening.

I debated how much snow to put in the Sunday-day forecast versus the Sunday-night forecast, knowing that it will snow through the afternoon and evening and lifts generally close between 300-400pm. My thinking now is that most mountains will see at least a few inches of snow on Sunday midday and afternoon, with the best chance for the best accumulations on Sunday in the mountains that are further west, and less snow for mountains further east (like Summit County).

On Sunday evening and Sunday night, the weather setup looks very good for additional accumulations for the northern mountains with wrap-around flow from the west and northwest … except for one thing. While we should have enough moisture and storm energy on Sunday evening to keep the snow accumulations going in the northern mountains, temperatures will likely be too cold for the atmosphere to make big snowflakes, so the temperature will likely be the limiting factor for Sunday night’s snowfall.

Wrapping this together…

* Timing. Expect a burst of intense snow to begin on Sunday between 1100 am to 100pm, with snow showers through the afternoon and Sunday evening.

* Favored mountains. It looks like all mountains will get the burst of snow on Sunday midday as the cold front passes, then a wind from the west and lingering moisture should keep the showers going on Sunday evening, favoring the northern mountains. Most models are showing a small area of more intense snow on Sunday evening, somewhere around Steamboat to Winter Park / Berthoud Pass to Summit County to Vail. Keep your eye on webcams on Sunday evening to see if the snow piles up. Again, I think temperatures will be a bit too cold for big overnight accumulations, but perhaps we could sneak out this additional significant snow on Sunday evening before temperatures become too cold.

* Snow amount. Roughly 3-6 inches on average with perhaps 8+ inches as the highest amounts in favored areas of the northern mountains.

* Snow quality. We should see thicker/denser snow on Sunday due to the wind and the initial warmer temperature. Then Sunday late afternoon and early evening could be the sweet spot for fluffier snow due to perfect temperatures. On Sunday late night, temperatures will likely be very cold, resulting in smaller snowflakes and denser snow.

* Best chance to ski powder. Sunday afternoon and then Monday morning.

The map below is from the CAIC 4km WRF model showing snow through Monday morning at 800 am. The map has not changed much since yesterday.

Monday will be a cold day (highs in the teens) with lingering clouds and snow showers in the northern mountains.

Then Tuesday through Friday should be dry and slightly warmer each day with temperatures rising into the 30s by the middle and end of the week.

My confidence about a storm next weekend is slightly higher, with snow possible sometime between Friday night and Sunday. That’s about all I can say. I have no idea if the storm will hit all mountains or favor one region of Colorado.

After that, we’ll likely see another week of mostly dry weather, with another storm possible around the following weekend of March 17-18. Yes, this is the same thing I’ve been saying for days, and I don’t see anything in the models to make me say anything differently, so let’s hope that we’ll get at least one refresh per week through mid-March.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains