Looking back, on Friday night and Saturday we saw snow in the northern mountains. While the forecast models showed an average of 2-4 inches for most areas, the reality was that the higher elevations closer to the divide saw the most snow and areas further west saw little to no snow. Below are the storm total accumulations from Friday night through Saturday afternoon.

Winter Park - 7”
Loveland - 6”
Arapahoe Basin - 5”
Cooper - 5”
Eldora - 5"
Breckenridge - 4”
Keystone - 4”
Copper - 3”

Most of this snow fell before lifts closed on Saturday afternoon, so expect to find chopped up powder on Sunday morning with a few deeper stashes.

It seems that this pattern of northern mountain snowfall, where the most snow accumulates along the divide with little snow further west (at Beaver Creek, Vail, and Steamboat) happens when we have a decent surge of moisture and energy but limited cooling behind the cold front. In this case, temperatures did cool on Friday night and Saturday, which led me to believe that all northern mountains would see snow, not just along the divide. But that wasn’t the case, and my thinking is that we didn’t have enough cooling to bring snow to all of the northern mountains. Every storm is a learning opportunity to figure out patterns that bring snow to certain mountains … for now, score one for the divide.

Now on Sunday morning, moisture is moving toward the southern mountains.

While this moisture looks like it will bring significant snow, most models show that the rain and snow will fall apart as it moves east, with only light snow amounts (dusting to 3 inches) in the southern mountains on Sunday.

On Monday and Monday night, the second part of this disorganized storm could bring snow showers to the northern mountains, and some high-resolution models show a decent chance for 1-3 inches right along the I-70 mountains on Monday night, which could result in a bit of powder on the groomers on Tuesday morning. Something to watch for.

Tuesday and Wednesday should be dry and warm with high temperatures in the 40s.

Then … well, things will get interesting.

For over one week, we have been talking about the storm cycle that would begin around March 15th and continue through about March 21st. The latest models now show that a lot of the storm’s energy and cold air will move more slowly than originally expected, and the brunt of it may not make it to Colorado until later in this period.

My best estimate at this point is that we’ll see a warmer wave of energy bring snow (and low-elevation rain) on Wednesday night through Thursday with perhaps a few inches of accumulation.

Then we’ll need to wait until Saturday night through Sunday night for a stronger wave of energy and cold air to bring more significant snow to most mountains, favoring the central and southern mountains.

I think the best chance for powder for most mountains will be on Sunday and Monday (March 18-19). However, this storm is trending slower, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see the newest models push back this timeline even further.

Looking far ahead, we’ll likely see a few days of dry weather around March 20-22-ish, then there should be another storm later that week or around the weekend of March 24-25.

I still have reasonable confidence that the last two weeks of March will deliver powder days, we just might need a bit of patience to let the storms and cold air move east from the Pacific Ocean into Colorado.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Backcountry education
I saw this report from an avalanche incident in Utah last week and thought it was an incredibly good write-up with highly useful “lessons learned” at the bottom of the post. Of course, please get your avalanche forecasts and education from the Colorado Avalanche Information Center and not The Colorado Daily Snow … I am simply passing this link along as I think it could be helpful for backcountry skiers: https://utahavalanchecenter.org/avalanches/38044

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains