Powder

We’ll keep the early-season excitement alive with this reader-submitted picture from November 4th in the northern mountains. You have to love early season powder to quell the pent-up up desire that builds through the summer! Of course, if you are in the backcountry, please make sure that you are educated about the avalanche risk via educational courses and reading the avalanche forecast from CAIC and CBAC.

Sunny through Friday

On Thursday, high temperatures were in the 30s at most ski areas. Temperatures on Thursday and Friday should be similar or a few degrees warmer with plenty of sunshine.

Weak storm still on track for Saturday and Sunday

The biggest impact of the weekend storm should be the cooler temperatures, which will be about 10F below Friday’s high.

Most models now agree that the best chance for a few inches of snow will be in the northern mountains from later Saturday through early Sunday.

The three snow forecasts below, each from a different model, are in reasonable agreement, so our confidence in this 2-3 day forecast can ratchet up to the moderate level.

Following the cool weather and northern-mountain snow on Sunday, the first few days of Thanksgiving week should be dry with highs in the 30s to low 40s. Nighttime temperatures will continue to be cold enough for snowmaking, and the dry air also helps the snowmaking to be more efficient.

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving and beyond, there are hints of more model agreement, but, well, there’s still nothing concrete.

The first storm of a new weather pattern (that should bring precipitation to California) may arrive in Colorado around Thanksgiving Day and could bring light to moderate snow.

Then after Thanksgiving, all models continue to show storms lurking over the central-west or southwest, and any of these storm tracks could bring snow to Colorado, but confidence in the details is non-existent.

The MJO signal argues for storminess to return late in November into early December, so perhaps the storms near and just after Thanksgiving will be the first wave of a new pattern, a new pattern that may not fully set up until closer to December.

Really we’re just grasping at straws (flurries?) when talking about what will happen 10+ days from now. So don’t put too much stock in any single forecast, though it’s still fun to think about the possibilities.

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Friday, November 16.

JOEL GRATZ

New backcountry lodge in the San Juans!

A friend of mine is helping to get the word out about the Red Mountain Alpine Lodge and asked me to share more with our OpenSnow community. The lodge is located near Red Mountain Pass, in southwestern Colorado roughly between Telluride and Silverton. This region offers a handful of backcountry lodging options, and Red Mountain Alpine Lodge is scheduled to open on December 21st.

* The lodge is 300 yards from Highway 550 = an easy approach!
* It's far enough from the highway to not hear the road.
* It's full service = you don’t haul food. Expect a hot breakfast, snacks, and a gourmet dinner.
* Choice of private rooms or dorm rooms
* Traditional bathrooms
* About 800ft below treeline, so there is often a skiing option even in high avalanche danger
* Offers wifi so you can continue to check the forecast:-)
* I haven’t been to the lodge yet (opens Dec 21), though I'm looking forward to checking it out!
* More details: http://www.redmountainalpinelodge.com/

* PS: My wife and I were engaged at the Opus Hut, also near Red Mountain Pass, so this area of the state is special to me and I'm thrilled to see more backcountry lodging options!

 

My upcoming presentations about the winter forecast and tips for chasing pow! 

* November 28 in Vail at Walking Mountains Science Center. Free to attend. The talk starts at 630pm. Please RSVP here.

* December 5 in Denver at the Denver Athletic Club. More details soon.

 

 OpenSummit

We have an iPhone app that provides detailed weather forecasts for your hiking, biking, and climbing adventures. OpenSummit now includes forecasts for 1,000 of the highest and/or notable summits and hiking areas across the United States. Download OpenSummit (iPhone only)

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains