Colorado Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest Colorado Daily Snow

By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 5 years ago November 17, 2018

Snow this weekend, more after Thanksgiving

Summary

The northern mountains will receive a few inches of snow on Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Then there is good news in the longer range forecast as we should see a storm around Thanksgiving, another around Saturday (Nov 24) and likely another one early the following week (Nov 26+/-).

Short Term Forecast

Snow from Saturday to Sunday AM

It never looked like a big storm and we are lucky to get any snow as the track of the storm is just brushing by northern Colorado. This is another way of saying that we should be thankful for any flakes and to keep our expectations on the low side.

The latest modeling confirms that snow could start over most northern-mountain ski areas on Saturday midday and will likely be most intense for a short window on Saturday evening. Snow accumulations will be greatest near and north of I-70 with much lower accumulations south of I-70.

The CAIC WRF model shows 2-6 inches for most northern mountains. Higher amounts are possible near and east of the divide and north of I-70, but those 7+ inch amounts look high to me for this storm.

The HRRR short-range precipitation forecast paints 0.1 to 0.4 inches across the northern mountains and converting to snow at a 15-to-1 ratio yields 1.5 to 6 inches.

Based on the timing of the storm, it looks like the majority of the snow should fall late in the day on Saturday and Saturday night, so Sunday morning should be the best time to find fresh tracks, or at least soft tracks if mountains groom the new snow.

Extended Forecast

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday should be dry.

Then I have increasing confidence for multiple storms starting on Thanksgiving and continuing into the last week of November.

The first storm should arrive around Thanksgiving with perhaps some powder late on Thanksgiving day or on Friday morning.

The second storm should arrive around Saturday, November 24th. This system looks a little stronger and a little colder than the Thanksgiving Day storm.

And the third storm could arrive around Monday, November 26th. I still have low confidence in the details of this storm and some models take it on a more southerly track.

The snow forecast through the first two storms, from an average of many model versions, yields 6-12+ inches for Colorado and at least 2x that in California, where they could use the moisture (though low-elevation rain following wildfires often leads to destructive mudslides, so it’s not all good news).

With most of our Colorado resorts recording 30-70 inches so far in this young season, and with multiple storms likely arriving later next week and the week after, my confidence is increasing that we’ll have a few more powder days with more terrain openings in late November.

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Sunday, November 17.

JOEL GRATZ

Announcements

New backcountry lodge in the San Juans!

A friend of mine is helping to get the word out about the Red Mountain Alpine Lodge and asked me to share more with our OpenSnow community. The lodge is located near Red Mountain Pass, in southwestern Colorado roughly between Telluride and Silverton. This region offers a handful of backcountry lodging options, and Red Mountain Alpine Lodge is scheduled to open on December 21st.

* The lodge is 300 yards from Highway 550 = an easy approach!
* It's far enough from the highway to not hear the road.
* It's full service = you don’t haul food. Expect a hot breakfast, snacks, and a gourmet dinner.
* Choice of private rooms or dorm rooms
* Traditional bathrooms
* About 800ft below treeline, so there is often a skiing option even in high avalanche danger
* Offers wifi so you can continue to check the forecast:-)
* I haven’t been to the lodge yet (opens Dec 21), though I'm looking forward to checking it out!
* More details: http://www.redmountainalpinelodge.com/

* PS: My wife and I were engaged at the Opus Hut, also near Red Mountain Pass, so this area of the state is special to me and I'm thrilled to see more backcountry lodging options!

 

My upcoming presentations about the winter forecast and tips for chasing pow! 

* November 28 in Vail at Walking Mountains Science Center. Free to attend. The talk starts at 630pm. Please RSVP here.

* December 5 in Denver at the Denver Athletic Club. More details soon.

 

 OpenSummit

We have an iPhone app that provides detailed weather forecasts for your hiking, biking, and climbing adventures. OpenSummit now includes forecasts for 1,000 of the highest and/or notable summits and hiking areas across the United States. Download OpenSummit (iPhone only)

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains

About Our Forecaster

Joel Gratz

Founding Meteorologist

Joel Gratz is the Founding Meteorologist of OpenSnow and has lived in Boulder, Colorado since 2003. Before moving to Colorado, he spent his childhood as a (not very fast) ski racer in eastern Pennsylvania.

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