Sunny Sunday

Following a dry, mostly sunny, and warm day on Saturday, the sunshine will continue on Sunday. The satellite image on Sunday morning shows mostly clear skies over Colorado (with lots of action over the northwest).

The week ahead

The weather pattern forecast from Monday to Friday, December 17-21, does not look remarkable. In the graphic below, we see a red color with lines bulging northward, and this generally indicates a ridge of high pressure, on average, during the week.

However, the 5-day average weather pattern is a little misleading because we will see some energy and moisture move into Colorado at times. Here’s how it might play out.

Monday will be dry with more clouds than Sunday.

Tuesday will bring a few showers, but accumulations should be light if anything.

On Wednesday and Thursday, moisture and energy will stream over the northern mountains. Look for snow from maybe Wednesday morning through Thursday morning with at least a few inches of accumulation, mostly near and north of I-70. Thursday morning could offer soft turns – keep an eye on this.

Then later Thursday through Friday should be dry.

The University of Utah multi-model ensemble forecast for Loveland, in the northern mountains, is all over the place, but there is a bit of consistency between model versions showing a few inches of snow from Wednesday into Thursday.

The trend toward stormier weather as we head into Christmas week is holding. It’s too soon to know details about any individual storms, but at least we’re heading in the right direction according to most models.

Below, the 5-day average weather pattern for December 22-26 shows white colors (neutral) with lines that bulge southward, indicating a trough of low pressure and some chance for storminess.

Then from December 27-31, the forecast below looks even more favorable with blue colors and a more pronounced trough near Colorado.

This trend toward stormier weather toward the end of December has been in the model’s forecasts for many days, so I am gaining confidence that it will happen, but it does not guarantee significant snow for all mountains – that will depend on the strength and track of each individual storm.

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Monday, December 17.

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains