Sunny Sunday

I love powder and storm skiing as much as anybody, but a weekend of blue skies and grippy groomers is also super fun.

There was not a cloud in the sky on Sunday as I skied Copper for most of the day with my family. The southeast-facing runs were especially good because they received more direct sunshine early in the day which helped to soften the snow. The snow on the southeast-facing runs never became slushy, though, because the sun’s energy was not strong enough, thanks to the low sun angle as the winter solstice is only a few days away.

This picture was taken near the summit of Copper, facing southeast looking at the Ten Mile Range with Spaulding Bowl on the right side:

The week ahead

There is a plenty to talk about with a possible powder day (or two).

On Monday morning, the national radar shows lots of precipitation in California, but that storm will mostly fall apart before it makes it to Colorado.

On Monday, expect more clouds during the afternoon with a few showers possible but little to no snow accumulation.

On Tuesday, we could see similar weather to Monday with some breaks of sunshine, some clouds, and maybe a few showers.

From Tuesday later afternoon through Wednesday evening, a stronger system should bring snow to the northern mountains with lower amounts in the central and southern mountains.

* Timing. The most intense snow should fall from late Tuesday night through Wednesday early evening. This means that snow reports on Wednesday morning might not show much, but that a decent amount of snow will fall during the day on Wednesday leading to soft and maybe powdery conditions. The best turns could be Wednesday midday or afternoon. If the storm slows a bit, then Thursday morning could be good as well, though right now Thursday morning looks like a bit of fresh snow on top of tracked powder from Wednesday.

* Amounts. The northern mountains are favored with 4-10 inches and the central mountains could be in the 1-4 inch range. This is a wide range due to continued spread in the models, though with adequate moisture, the jet stream overhead, and a northwest wind (favorable for many northern mountains), I think some spots will see more than 6 inches.

Below is the snow forecast from the high-resolution CAIC WRF 4km model. Since we are still about 60 hours from the start of the heaviest snow, I don’t put a lot of faith in the exact forecast on the map below, but the signal for significant snow is something to pay attention to.

Following the Wednesday storm, Thursday will likely be dry though there might be soft snow in the morning in the northern mountains.

Models are showing four possible storms from late this week through Christmas week. While the details of each storm are still not clear, here’s the rough timing.

Storm #1: Later Friday into Saturday. This is likely a weaker system with limited moisture, and it would favor the central and northern mountains.

Storm #2: Later Saturday into Sunday. This is a moderately-strong system and could also favor the central and northern mountains.

Storm #3: Monday-ish. Again, this could be a stronger storm and would favor the central and southern mountains.

Storm #4: December 25-27. This could be a slow-moving and strong storm that would initially favor the southern and eastern mountains with significant snow before possibly bringing snow to other mountains.

As there is more agreement in the modeling, I will work to refine the forecast and dial in when we can expect the best powder days. For now, it’s just fun to know that there are more storms in the pipeline!

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Tuesday, December 18.

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains