Sometimes we can have confidence in a forecast many days in advance of a storm. And sometimes the confidence never comes, even when the storm is on the doorstep.

The storm today, Saturday, November 16, is one of those “we have no confidence even when the storm is on the doorstep” type of situations.

The snowfall on Saturday was never expected to be big, just a few inches at most. But over the past few days, models waffled between 2-4 inches and no snow at all.

On Saturday morning, the national radar shows some rain and over Wyoming, heading southeast toward northern Colorado.

After looking at many different models, it’s likely that this storm will bring some snowflakes to the northern mountains on Saturday and Saturday evening, though I still have low confidence in accumulations.

The most likely scenario is for a dusting to maybe 2 inches if a stronger squall happens to hit a certain mountain. This is by no means a big storm, but it’ll be nice to see flakes following two weeks of dry weather.

Following this Saturday storm, there might be a few more flakes in the northern mountains on Sunday night, though the majority of Sunday through Tuesday will be dry as we wait for the next storm to arrive.

All models agree that we will see a storm move slowly through the southwestern United States during the middle and end of next week. Here’s what that storm should look like.

A southern storm track, on average, favors the most snow in Arizona, southern Utah, New Mexico, and here in southern Colorado.

While snow is showing up in the forecast for all Colorado mountains late next week and next weekend (roughly Wednesday, November 20 – Sunday, November 24), early indications show the most snow is likely to fall over the southern mountains around Wolf Creek. The University of Utah’s multi-model forecast shows reasonable agreement for more than a foot of snow at Wolf Creek.

Looking even further ahead, the good news is that we’ll likely see another southern-style storm the following week, sometime around Thanksgiving.

I am excited to see these two storms in the forecast, though I also want to set expectations that with a southern storm track, there’s a strong possibility that these will not be equal-opportunity storms, meaning that they will likely bring more snow to the southern mountains (good!) and less snow to other mountains (bummer!). More snow in the southern mountains would help to even out our current snowpack, which is far shallower in the south compared to the north.

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Sunday morning.

JOEL GRATZ

PS – I hope to see some of you at one of my upcoming talks listed below!

Upcoming talks

These talks are usually 45 minutes and allow me to show a little of the science behind snow forecasting, have some fun, and answer lots of questions. I’ll post details about each talk as they are available.

* Wheat Ridge: Nov 19 @ Downriver Equipment
- I will be talking about snow forecasting
- Ron Radzieta will be talking about river flows for rafting, etc
- The night starts at 600pm
- Beer provided by Good River & Fat Tire
- Directions and details

* Evergreen: Nov 21 @ Boone Mountain Sports / Evergreen Brewery
- Doors open at 600pm, beer and great food available for purchase
- My talk starts at 700pm
- Directions and details

* Breckenridge: Dec 6 @ Colorado Mountain College Breckenridge

* Basalt: Dec 12 @ Bristlecone Mountain Sports
- 700-730 Light refreshments
- 730-830 Presentation + Q&A
- Tickets are $10/person (proceeds benefit Roaring Fork Conservancy)
- More details
- Purchase a ticket in advance (might sell out)

Plug for the 12th Annual CAIC Benefit Bash

- November 23rd at the Breckenridge Riverwalk Center
- The biggest fundraiser of the year for CAIC
- LOTS of prizes, awesome live music, silent and live auctions, dinner, and drinks
- Win skis, splitboards, packs, and more
- Get your ticket today!

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains