Saturday night’s storm delivered a dusting to an inch of snow to most northern mountains with 2-3 inches at Loveland and Winter Park. The next storm is still on track to bring snow from Wednesday through Saturday and will favor the southern mountains will double-digit totals. After that, we should see more snow during the week of Thanksgiving though the latest forecasts show a different trajectory for the storm(s) around the end of November.
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Short Term Forecast
For days we had been watching for the chance of a weak storm on Saturday night in the northern mountains. Initially, I was thinking that this storm would deliver 1-4 inches. Then at the last minute, all models essentially canceled the storm and I dropped my forecast to a dusting to an inch.
The reality was somewhere in between these scenarios as most northern mountains did pick up an inch of snow on Saturday night, with stronger bursts at Loveland and Winter Park.
Winter Park: 3”
Arapahoe Basin: 1”
Beaver Creek: 1”
Following more than two weeks of dry weather, it is nice to see fresh snow on a few mountains now on Sunday morning. We’ll take the flakes.
The other story for Sunday morning is that temperature are 5-10°F colder compared to Saturday morning, which is good news for snowmaking crews, and take note about this if you’re heading out to the hill. By early afternoon, we will warm up to the upper 30s to low 40s.
Following dry weather on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, the next storm will arrive on Tuesday night.
All models are still on board the scenario of a storm that will bring chances for snow from Tuesday night through Saturday and track toward Colorado from the southwest.
It’s still a little too early to have a lot of confidence in the forecast, but I have medium confidence that the following forecast is in the ballpark, with double-digit snow totals in the southern mountains (Purgatory, Silverton, Wolf Creek), and lower single-digit totals in central and northern Colorado.
In fact, my phone buzzed on Saturday afternoon with an OpenSnow Snow Forecast Alert for Wolf Creek, showing three days of snow for this storm. Snow Forecast alerts are available to All-Access subscribers…hint hint:-)
We should see a break in the snow next weekend (Saturday, Nov 23 – Sunday, Nov 24).
Then there should be another storm during the week of Thanksgiving. For the last few days, it looked like the Thanksgiving-week storm would come from the southwest, but now most models have changed their tune and show that the storm (or storms) will come from more of a west or northwest direction, and this could change which mountains are favored for the most snow.
Thanks for reading!
My next update will be on Monday morning.
PS – I hope to see some of you at one of my upcoming talks listed below!
These talks are usually 45 minutes and allow me to show a little of the science behind snow forecasting, have some fun, and answer lots of questions. I’ll post details about each talk as they are available.
* Wheat Ridge: Nov 19 @ Downriver Equipment
- I will be talking about snow forecasting
- Ron Radzieta will be talking about river flows for rafting, etc
- The night starts at 600pm
- Beer provided by Good River & Fat Tire
- Directions and details
* Evergreen: Nov 21 @ Boone Mountain Sports / Evergreen Brewery
- Doors open at 600pm, beer and great food available for purchase
- My talk starts at 700pm
- Directions and details
* Breckenridge: Dec 6 @ Colorado Mountain College Breckenridge
* Basalt: Dec 12 @ Bristlecone Mountain Sports
- 700-730 Light refreshments
- 730-830 Presentation + Q&A
- Tickets are $10/person (proceeds benefit Roaring Fork Conservancy)
- More details
- Purchase a ticket in advance (might sell out)
Plug for the 12th Annual CAIC Benefit Bash
- November 23rd at the Breckenridge Riverwalk Center
- The biggest fundraiser of the year for CAIC
- LOTS of prizes, awesome live music, silent and live auctions, dinner, and drinks
- Win skis, splitboards, packs, and more
- Get your ticket today!
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass
Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass
East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains
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