Monday Recap

Monday morning was a fun powder morning across the state. In the northern mountains, snow showers continued during the day with 1-5 inches of additional accumulation after the 500 am snow reports.

Below are a few pictures from the storm.

On Sunday afternoon in the southern mountains, there were blower conditions on the front end of the storm.

On Monday morning, it was deep at Aspen Highlands.

Also on Monday morning, most northern mountains enjoyed a fresh 3-8 inches. Cruising fresh pow on top of groomed runs is super fun.

And by late Monday morning, the clouds cleared away from Telluride revealing one of the most beautiful landscapes that we have here in Colorado.

Current Snowpack

It is rare to see all of Colorado’s mountains with a similar snowpack compared to average. Often one region has a deeper snowpack than another. But right now, most mountain ranges are in the range of 110-130% of average, which is very good news.

Tuesday

Look for mostly dry weather and at least some sunshine. Clouds and a few snow showers could hang over some northern mountains.

Wednesday

We’ll see dry weather with increasing clouds late in the afternoon.

Wednesday night

A weak system will bring snow showers to the northern and central mountain showers. Expect a dusting to up to 3 inches by Thursday morning.

Thursday

We’ll have dry weather with increasing clouds as the next storm approaches.

Thursday Night – Friday

Snow will hit the northern and central mountains. Friday should be a powder day with 6+ inches for most mountains. Temperatures will be warm so the snow will be thicker and denser. Steamboat (in the far north) will be the first mountain to see cooler air on Friday, so their snow quality might be lighter and fluffier.

Friday Night – Saturday

Snow should continue in the northern and central mountains. Colder air will arrive and this means that the snow quality should improve to be fluffier and lighter. A cold front will likely stall somewhere in the northern or central mountains and this could become a focus for a band of more intense snow. An additional 6+ inches of snow should fall during this time and Saturday should be another powder day.

Saturday Night – Sunday

Most models show that the best chance for most intense snow will move into the southern mountains with lighter snow elsewhere. The southern mountains should see 6+ inches of snow will a powder day on Sunday.

Storm Total

All models agree that we’ll see snow for multiple days with significant snow totals, but there are still large differences about how much snow we’ll receive. Precipitation forecasts across models range from 0.75 – 2.00 inches.

Below is the precipitation forecast from the American GFS model. Do not think that this exact forecast will verify. It’s just one forecast of many.

Since some part of the storm will be warm with thicker snow, and another part of the storm will be cooler with fluffier snow, I’ll estimate a blended snow-to-liquid ratio of 13.5.

We can multiply the precipitation forecast (0.75” – 2.00”) times the snow-to-liquid ratio (13.5) which yields a forecast of 10” – 27” of snow. Yes, that’s a wide range, but I think it’s a reasonable way to think about this storm. There is a LOT of potential, but we’ll need to wait at least another day or two before nailing down the details.

For now, I am planning that Friday and Saturday will have the best chance for powder in the northern and central mountains, and Sunday will have the best chance for powder in the southern mountains.

My focus is mostly on the upcoming storm (Thursday night through Sunday) and I only took a quick look at the extended forecast.

Our next chance for a storm will likely be around Thursday or Friday, December 19-20. It’s too soon to know which mountains will be favored or how much snow we could receive.

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Wednesday morning.

JOEL GRATZ

We have OpenSnow gear for sale for a limited time!

Order now through December 18th and the products will ship in January. Thanks for your support and happy shopping! Store link: https://opsw.co/OSApparel

Upcoming talks

SOLD OUT
Basalt: Thursday, December 12
* Tickets are sold out (thank you!) and there is now a waitlist
* More details

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains