One More Picture from Monday

Yes, it was a great start to the week!

Current Snowpack

Yesterday I posted a map that showed all regions of the state in the 110-130% of average range for snowpack. Below is another view of the state of our snow.

The dark blue line is this season, the light blue line is last season, and the red line is the median. Following our three weeks of dry weather in early November (the flat part of the dark blue line), we have caught back up and surpassed the average snowpack. Let’s keep the party going!

Wednesday

We’ll see dry weather with increasing clouds.

Wednesday night

A weak system will bring snow showers to the northern and central mountain showers. Expect a dusting to up to 3 inches by Thursday morning.

Thursday

Snow showers may stick around the northern and central mountains, though accumulations through most of the day should be nothing or very light. Then the snow should ramp up in the northern and central mountains startling in the late afternoon or early evening.

Thursday Night – Friday

I have high confidence that the northern and central mountains will see 6-12 inches and that Friday should be a fun powder day with freshies in the morning and more snow throughout the day. The northern part of the southern mountains (Telluride, Silverton) should also see some snow on Friday

Friday Night – Sunday

All mountains will see additional significant snow but I have low confidence in the details (timing, location) because the latest models show more uncertainty than they did yesterday.

One possibility that the snow won’t really stop in the northern and central mountains on Friday night, and Saturday will be another great powder day. Then the snow will transition more to the central and southern mountains on Saturday into Sunday with the deepest powder on Sunday in the central and southern mountains.

Another possibility is that all mountains see a break in the snow on Friday evening with snow ramping back up on Saturday through Sunday favoring the central and southern mountains.

This timing is important when it comes to determining which mountains will have the most powder on Saturday and Sunday. We should have more confidence in this forecast by the time of my update on Thursday morning.

Storm Total

Despite the uncertainty in the timing of the second part of the storm after Friday night, total precipitation from Thursday night through Sunday night looks impressive in ALL models which is what gives me high confidence that we’ll see 10-20+ inches at most mountains.

For a sanity check of the models, I think it's reasonable to see this much precipitation because (a) the storm will last for three days (b) moisture will be adequate and (c) we'll see multiple waves of storm energy, a cold front will be nearby, and the jet stream will be overhead. All of these factors make me believe in the model's forecast for significant snow.

Below are two models that both show significant precipitation. I do not pay attention to the exact placement of the highest totals but rather look at the overall picture which shows plenty of precipitation for all mountains.

The American GFS model.

The German ICON model.

The average precipitation amount is about 1.2 inches and multiplied by a conservative (dense) snow-to-liquid ratio of 13.5 yields about 16 inches, hence my confidence in a 10-20 inch range. It’s highly likely that some mountains will get more than 20 inches of snow.

Following the three-day storm from Thursday night through Sunday night, we’ll likely see the snow end on Monday (December 16) though conditions will remain soft into early next week.

The next chance for snow should be around Thursday, December 19 – Friday, December 20. This looks like a weak-to-moderate-strength storm.

After that, there is decent agreement among the longer-range models that the next storm should be sometime around Christmas Eve or Christmas Day and could favor the southern mountains.

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Thursday morning.

JOEL GRATZ

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains