Wildfire Update

There are many active fires right now with the most significant being the East Troublesome Fire.

The weather on Friday should be a little more positive for most fires with cooler temperatures, but then we'll have a dicey 24 hours from Friday evening through Saturday evening as winds west of the divide will become faster and gusty. Then on Saturday night, the snowstorm will move in and it should slow or stop most fire growth for at least a few days (I have no idea if the upcoming snow will smother the fires for good or if there will continue to be problems when we return to warmer and drier weather later next week). Fingers crossed that we can make it through Saturday's wind without massive additional issues.

Friday, October 23rd

A cold front moved over the northern and eastern mountains on Thursday night. Now on Friday morning, there are clouds east of the divide and cool temperatures for many spots.

The satellite image shows the low clouds east of the divide, and this moisture and cold weather is great news for the fires east of the divide (though under the low clouds there is some freezing drizzle that has made road slicks in spots).

The temperature change from Thursday morning to Friday morning shows 10-30 degrees of cooling across the east and north. Since these regions are the location of most major fires, this cooling is great news.

This cooling is also great news for snowmaking as I noticed that a few mountains fired up their snow guns early on Friday. The base area cam caught Eldora's snow guns in action early Friday as temperatures cooled.

Friday will be a cool and dry day for most areas.

Saturday, October 24th

This is the day before the storm. Temperatures will warm and winds will become strong and gusty. I am worried about fire growth during this day. But, we just need to make it through the day because relief is on the way in the form of snowflakes.

Storm Saturday Night through Monday

I looked through a LOT of forecast maps and data this morning trying to get a handle on the upcoming system and to figure out if we can make a confident forecast or if there are still areas of uncertainty.

There is a little bit of both, which is usual for a significant storm that's still a few days away. I am confident about some components of the storm, and I am still uncertain about others.

I am confident that the jet stream will create a not-so-narrow band of intense snow from late Saturday night through Sunday night across the northern and central mountains, and also that there should be a second time of intense snow on Sunday night into Monday for the southern mountains.

The map below shows the total precipitation forecast with two areas of more significant precipitation. Multiply these numbers by 15 to estimate snowfall.

The combination of plenty of moisture and the jet stream should lead to significant snowfall for most mountains. Below I show the University of Utah multi-model forecast for Vail Pass in the northern mountains. I picked this graphic and this location because I think this forecast looks reasonable and provides a useful perspective on the storm. Snow amounts range from 5-24 inches with an average of around 15 inches.

While those sound like fun numbers, and they are, I remain a little skeptical of these totals. It's useful to remain skeptical since big snow totals are rare (it's easier for a storm to not come together perfectly than for all factors to come together perfectly).

Some things that could go wrong are that the storm tracks farther to our west and we don't get the best jet stream energy, or the band of intense snow is more narrow than the current forecast and only a few mountains see big totals while others are left with lower amounts.

In addition to the snow, the other piece of good news is that this storm will bring snow to all mountains and temperatures will be very cold, so snowmaking will be possible 24 hours per day for at least a few days.

This storm will stay close enough to Colorado early next week so that we'll continue to see cool temperatures and maybe a few showers over the southern mountains.

Then we'll transition back into a generally warm and dry weather pattern from late next week through early November. Below is the forecast high temperatures showing the warming trend.

A few models hint at the chance for a weak storm around Halloween, though the odds for that do not look good at the moment.

Far out in weather forecasting fantasy land, both the American GFS model and the European model show a potential cooler and stormier time around November 15th, plus or minus a few days. Yes, that's three weeks into the future, but at least it's fun to dream:-)

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains