Sunday was a dry and mostly cloudy day for most of Colorado.

On Sunday night into Monday morning, the first part of the incoming storm dropped snow over the northern mountains. We were looking for totals of 1-5 inches and that's about what we have seen as of 500am on Monday.

6" Arapahoe Basin
6" Rocky Mountain National Park
5" Cooper
5" Loveland
5" Winter Park
3" Eldora
3" Keystone
2" Breckenridge
2" Copper
2" Vail
1" Beaver Creek
1" Steamboat

On Monday morning through midday, there will be a few narrow bands of snow hanging around the northern mountains, so there could be some additional accumulation through mid-morning for a few lucky areas.

Monday night through Tuesday evening is when we'll see the second part of the storm ramp up over the southeastern and southern mountains. The latest forecast models have dropped accumulations just a bit, though we should still see significant totals especially for the southeastern mountains near and east of the divide and also the southern mountains in general. Like I mentioned yesterday, this is NOT a classic storm setup for big snow over the southern mountains, but the combination of some storm energy, moisture, and especially the jet stream overhead should combine to create respectable totals of up to 6-12 inches. The map below looks reasonable for the southern 1/3rd of the state, and note that accumulations over the northern mountains are mostly from Monday morning. 

Wednesday & Thursday should be dry. We'll see some clouds, and maybe a few snow showers, but overall these days will bring mundane weather.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday is when we'll see our next storm. The main area of storm energy (trough) will generally stay to our west during these three days, which means that our wind direction will mostly be from the southwest.

A southwest wind direction strongly favors the southern mountains, the far western parts of the central mountains, and not really the northern mountains, though decent snowfall can make it to the north if pieces of storm energy and/or the jet stream can overwhelm the negative wind direction.

An early look at the multi-model precipitation forecast for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday confirms our thinking about where the deepest snow could fall. Orange and red colors show areas of 1+ inch of precipitation which can be about 12+ inches of snow.

Snow could ramp up on Friday, become steadier on Saturday, and maybe fall intensely sometime Saturday night into Sunday. This should mean that the best powder would be on Sunday, with potential leftovers or even good snow on Monday morning as well.

Following the stormy weather on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, we might see a break in the snowfall on Monday, January 25th.

Unfortunately, the main area of storminess during the final five days of January will likely center itself over the west coast and not over the Rockies, but we should still see pieces of energy push into the Rockies and near Colorado which will bring us some snow.

Our best two chances for storms will be around Tuesday or Wednesday, January 26-27, and again around the following weekend, about Saturday or Sunday, January 30-31. 

Perspective

I will continue to post reader-submitted pictures to keep us motivated to ride even during periods of drier weather. Here is today's photo.

Awaking early one January morning to hear rumors of over 2 feet of snow falling at Buffalo Pass, I knew I had timed my backcountry expedition with Steamboat Powdercats just right. I froth at the mouth just thinking about this day as it materialized into the deepest, fluffiest powder I had ever ridden. No wonder they call this “Fluffalo Pass.” -Derek Van Dam

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

OpenSnow Forecast Data Update

On Tuesday (1/12), we began updating the automated forecasts on OpenSnow with a proprietary blend of data from the GFS (American), GDPS (Canadian), and ECMWF (European) weather models.

Previously, we combined information from our local forecasters, the National Weather Service (NOAA), and data from the ECMWF (European) weather model. This method only provided hourly data for the United States and relied on a single model to produce our snow forecasts for the next 10 days.

Why is this new forecast data better than the old forecast data? The benefits include:

• Blending multiple global models increases accuracy and confidence in the forecast.
• Hourly data for any location in the world.
• A proprietary snow-to-liquid calculation to improve accuracy, especially in colder environments.
• An improved method for calculating the snow level (elevation that separates rain from snow) to provide a more realistic forecast, especially at the beginning of storms and during times of intense snowfall.
• Ability to create a forecast for any location and elevation to ensure that we are forecasting conditions on the mountain and not for a nearby town.

We also plan to add even more global and high-resolution models into our proprietary forecast blend over time. Our goal is to create the most accurate snow forecast and we're just getting started.

The data can be viewed as hourly forecasts for the next 5 days and daily forecasts for the next 10 days. Available data includes:

• Chance of Precipitation
• Day & Night Snow Forecast
• Day & Night Snow Level
• Daily High & Low Temperature
• Hourly Temperature
• Hourly Wind Speed
• Hourly Wind Gust
• Hourly Cloud Cover %

This new blend of forecast data is available on OpenSnow for over 2,000 locations around the world and we are adding new locations every day.

Explore Locations → OpenSnow.com/explore

---

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains