Colorado Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest Colorado Daily Snow

By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 3 years ago January 17, 2021

Complex storm will bring snow on Monday & Tuesday

Summary

Sunday will be dry for most of the day, then from Sunday evening through Monday midday, the northern mountains will see 1-5 inches of snow and maybe soft turns on Monday morning. From Monday night to Tuesday night, the snow will shift to the central and southern mountains with 4-12+ inches and powder possible on Tuesday. The next storm should bring powder on Saturday & Sunday.

Short Term Forecast

On Saturday morning, most northern mountains enjoyed softer turns in the morning thanks to 1-5 inches that accumulated, mostly between sunrise and about 10 am. The deepest totals were 4-5 inches at both Loveland and the summit of Steamboat. Snow showers reached as far south as Silverton in the northern San Juan mountains where they reported 2 inches. The forecast for this storm worked out pretty well and there were some enjoyable soft turns with freshies on top of the groomers.

On Sunday morning, we'll see dry weather for most of the state and clouds will cover most northern and central mountains.

From Sunday late afternoon through Monday late morning, the first part of the next storm will bring snow to the northern mountains. I am thinking of Monday morning in a similar way to Saturday morning with the chance for 1-5 inches of freshies and this snow could ski nicely on top of the groomers. I have low confidence in the placement of any intense bands of snow or eventual accumulations, and there is some upside potential with the jet stream overhead, which can create narrow yet intense snow bands. The bottom line is that Monday morning could offer fun freshies in the northern mountains.

Monday between late morning and afternoon should be dry for most mountains. The snow over the northern mountains will have mostly stopped, and the snow for the other mountains likely will not begin until the evening.

Monday evening to Tuesday evening is when the second part of the storm will crank up. The best chance for any snow will be near and south of I-70 and the deepest accumulations should be over the southeastern mountains east of the divide and also over the southern mountains. Here is the multi-model precipitation forecast which does a nice job highlighting the areas with the potential for the deepest snow.

The areas in blue could see 6+ inches and totals could go above 12 inches in some spots. This all sounds good, and it might be, but I am a little wary about this storm because it is not a classic setup for big snow in the southern mountains. A classic setup would bring a wind from the south or southwest, yet this storm will bring a wind direction from the south and southeast, which is not as ideal. The main thing that this storm has going for it will be the jet stream overhead, which helps to lift the atmosphere and turn moisture into bands of intense snowfall.

With all models jumping onboard the scenario for significant snowfall over the southern mountains and over areas near and east of the divide, it's hard to argue with the likelihood for powder on Tuesday. I am just mindful that since this is not a classic setup for big southern snow, there could be some surprises, both on the high side and the low side. Still, the bottom line is that there should be powder on Tuesday.

Wednesday & Thursday should be dry and warm for most of Colorado.

Friday will be a transition day with maybe more clouds and some snow showers, especially for the southern mountains.

Then Saturday & Sunday looks like the two days with the best chance for powder across all mountains. The southern mountains will likely be favored earlier in the weekend, with more snow for the central and northern mountains later in the weekend, and potentially spilling into Monday morning. Below is the forecast weather pattern showing a large area of storminess (trough) pushing from west to east across the Rockies during the weekend.

Extended Forecast

We'll likely start the final week of January with dry weather, though there could be powder, or leftover powder, on Monday morning, January 25th.

Then the main story for the last few days of January should be that most of the storm energy will hang over the west coast. While this is not a good scenario for snowfall here in Colorado, some models show pieces of that storm energy pushing east toward us during the middle of the week (January 27th) and again during the next weekend (January 30-31st). We'll see. That's still two weeks away, so we're talking about storms that are out in 'fantasy land' as BA our Tahoe forecaster likes to say.

Perspective

I will continue to post reader-submitted pictures to keep us motivated to ride even during periods of drier weather. Here is today's photo.

This was the third day in a row with Powder Pancakes at the Aspen properties. Ryan and I dropped into AMF at Snowmass to be rewarded with bottomless goods. -Garrett R.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Announcements

OpenSnow Forecast Data Update

On Tuesday (1/12), we began updating the automated forecasts on OpenSnow with a proprietary blend of data from the GFS (American), GDPS (Canadian), and ECMWF (European) weather models.

Previously, we combined information from our local forecasters, the National Weather Service (NOAA), and data from the ECMWF (European) weather model. This method only provided hourly data for the United States and relied on a single model to produce our snow forecasts for the next 10 days.

Why is this new forecast data better than the old forecast data? The benefits include:

  • Blending multiple global models increases accuracy and confidence in the forecast.
  • Hourly data for any location in the world.
  • A proprietary snow-to-liquid calculation to improve accuracy, especially in colder environments.
  • An improved method for calculating the snow level (elevation that separates rain from snow) to provide a more realistic forecast, especially at the beginning of storms and during times of intense snowfall.
  • Ability to create a forecast for any location and elevation to ensure that we are forecasting conditions on the mountain and not for a nearby town.

We also plan to add even more global and high-resolution models into our proprietary forecast blend over time. Our goal is to create the most accurate snow forecast and we're just getting started.

The data can be viewed as hourly forecasts for the next 5 days and daily forecasts for the next 10 days. Available data includes:

  • Chance of Precipitation
  • Day & Night Snow Forecast
  • Day & Night Snow Level
  • Daily High & Low Temperature
  • Hourly Temperature
  • Hourly Wind Speed
  • Hourly Wind Gust
  • Hourly Cloud Cover %

This new blend of forecast data is available on OpenSnow for over 2,000 locations around the world and we are adding new locations every day.

Explore Locations → OpenSnow.com/explore


Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains

About Our Forecaster

Joel Gratz

Founding Meteorologist

Joel Gratz is the Founding Meteorologist of OpenSnow and has lived in Boulder, Colorado since 2003. Before moving to Colorado, he spent his childhood as a (not very fast) ski racer in eastern Pennsylvania.

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