Monday

Another day with more snow. The far southern mountains measured up to about 10 inches while many central and northern mountains notched an additional 2-8 inches. Even though most mountains in Colorado are not seeing deep snow totals, it is a good thing that there is at least a little bit of snow falling each day as this helps to create softer conditions and slowly builds our snowpack.

Monday Night

Most mountains saw a lull in the snowfall as we were between waves of storm energy. But this lull didn't last long as the next and final wave of energy is arriving early on Tuesday morning.

Tuesday

The final wave of energy is already bringing intense snow to the southern mountains around sunrise on Tuesday and this snow will move north and east across the rest of Colorado through the day. Below is the 18-hour forecast radar from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR) that we show here on OpenSnow. It extends from Tuesday early morning through Tuesday night at 1100pm.

The deepest accumulations of 6-10 inches should be in the southern mountains thanks to favorable southwest flow during the day. Lighter accumulations of 1-6 inches should fall in the central and northern mountains, mostly during the midday, afternoon, and early evening. Below is the CAIC 2km model's snow forecast from early Tuesday morning through Tuesday late evening.

The best riding in the southern mountains should be during the morning and midday on Tuesday. For the central and northern mountains, the softest snow should be on Tuesday midday through the afternoon. It's likely that the northern mountains will see snow extend past Tuesday's last chair, so there should be soft snow to enjoy on Wednesday morning's first chair.

Wednesday, Thursday, Friday

Wednesday will be mostly dry with just a few showers popping up in the afternoon, mostly over the central mountains. Thursday and Friday look completely dry with partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures rising into the upper 20s to mid-30s.

Friday Night to Saturday Night

The next storm will bring snow from Friday evening through Saturday and the snow might continue through Saturday early evening. I'll stick with my initial thinking of 2-10 inches of accumulation across the state. Like the current storm, the higher totals once again will fall on mountains that are farther to the south and west. The graphic below is a multi-model precipitation forecast, with the darker greens indicating the chance for 6+ inches.

It is possible that the models are under-forecasting the snow potential for the northern mountains on Saturday midday through the afternoon when the wind direction becomes more favorable and blows from the west and northwest, so that's something to watch. Overall, Saturday should be a low-to-mid-end powder day for most mountains.

Next Sunday, Monday, and likely most of Tuesday will be dry.

Then we'll move into a cold and stormy period starting on Tuesday night, February 2 and this period could last for the better part of seven days. This is a one-to-two week forecast, and before jumping on the bandwagon of forecasting stormy conditions, it's important to make sure that multiple models agree with this scenario.

Based on the three images above, yes, multiple models do agree with a stormy scenario near and over Colorado between February 3-9. The blue color in the map indicates a high chance for colder temperatures and stormy conditions.

So what will this mean for powder potential? Unfortunately, that's not easy to figure out one to two weeks in advance. Within this week of stormy weather, energy and moisture could stay right over Colorado for big snow totals, or storms could dive south, or they could track a little farther to the north, or anything in between. It's likely that at least some regions of Colorado will see snowy and cold weather, but it's far too soon to call out the exact location and timing of potential powder days.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

A Small Pat-On-The-Back

OpenSnow was recently featured in about the most positive light possible on Verizon News. Here's a bit of backstory about when and how we created OpenSnow and what we're up to now. Thanks for checking out the article and for your support of me and OpenSnow!

Backcountry

If you've seen pictures of backcountry riding in fresh powder, and it looks appealing, please remember that going into the backcountry is awesome AND requires education if you're going to enjoy it safely and respectfully.

This is a great place to start to find out more about taking educational classes, hiring guides, and in general, to learn how to get into the backcountry and have a ton of fun and do so safely: https://www.colorado.com/WinterBackcountrySafety

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains