On Friday night, we were looking for the storm to move into northwestern Colorado with 2-6 inches of snow accumulating for the northern and central mountains through Saturday mid-morning.

The reality was different than the forecast, however, as only a few spots reported any snow accumulation on Friday night.

7" Steamboat (summit at 700am)
5" Steamboat (summit at 600am)
2" Powderhorn
2" Steamboat (mid-mountain at 600am)
2" Sunlight
1" Winter Park

Steamboat has been the winner with 5" at the summit as of 600am (see the image below) and another 2 inches fell between 600am and 700am.

So what happened to the snow at other areas? Based on the current radar and the Saturday morning snow reports above, the band of snow that we were expecting to move across most of the northern and central mountains seems to have been hung up to the west and weakened more than expected as it moved to the east. That's why the deeper snow reports are all toward the west (Steamboat, Powderhorn, Sunlight).

Since the first part of the forecast on Friday night didn't work out for most mountains, I have my doubts about how the rest of the forecast will work out during the day on Saturday. The forecast radar from most models, including the HRRR model below, shows the band of snow weakening through the morning and being replaced by streaks of intense snow showers over the northern and north-central mountains for the rest of the day on Saturday.

Will these showers actually bring snow to most mountains on Saturday mid-morning, midday, and afternoon? The wind direction during these showers will blow from the west and west-northwest which is more favorable than what we saw on Friday night, so we have that going for us. Also, upstream in Utah, most mountains saw a quick foot of snow accumulate on Friday night, which shows that there is potential for decent snow totals from the second part of this storm as it moves over us on Saturday (to be clear, I am NOT forecasting a foot of snow for us here in Colorado on Saturday, I am just using Utah's snow reports as an example that the showers in west and northwest flow can be productive).

The bottomline for Saturday is that Steamboat is already on its way to a powder day and maybe the midday and afternoon showers at other mountains can work some magic with at least a few inches of accumulation for other northern and central mountains. But based on the totally blown forecast on Friday night by most models for most northern and central mountains, I have low confidence about how the rest of Saturday will turn out.

Also, despite jokes about meteorologists being wrong all the time, it's not often that a forecast for at least a few inches of snow turns into no snow like what happened on Friday night.

On Sunday, the southern mountains will see snow showers, and for the central and northern mountains, if Saturday afternoon's snow showers extend into Saturday evening, perhaps there will be some fresh snow to enjoy during Sunday morning. High temperatures will be chilly, generally in the teens.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be dry and warmer with high temperatures in the upper 20s to mid-30s.

Thursday is when we could see our next chance for snow. If we do get snow, it will likely be confined to the southern and southeastern mountains. The storm will be compact and track from southwest-to-northeast and toward the southeastern corner of Colorado. If this storm does come close enough to Colorado to bring snow, the best chances for 3-6+ inches would be around Wolf Creek and the southern Sangre de Cristo mountains.

Friday, March 5 to Tuesday, March 9 should be mostly dry and warm with high temperatures in the 30s and maybe even the 40s. It'll feel like springtime. There is a chance for a little bit of snow around Sunday, March 7th, though significant snow during this time is unlikely.

Wednesday, March 10 to Sunday, March 14 is when the weather could get a little more interesting. Storminess over the west coast could push east toward Colorado at some point during these days, most likely later in the period closer to the 15th. While I enjoy sunny and warm spring skiing, I of course would like it to snow again (!), and so I hope that we can get another storm cycle or at least a day or two of snow back in the forecast around mid-March.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains