Thursday was dry across Colorado.

Now on Friday morning, a storm tracking just north of the state is bringing clouds and snow showers to areas near and north of I-70. The clouds are easy to spot on the satellite image, mostly over the northern mountains, and mostly west of the city lights of the front range.

Under those clouds covering the northern mountains are snowflakes. The 'deepest' accumulation that I've seen this morning is about 1 inch at Loveland and Arapahoe Basin.

Below, it's a winter-like scene at A-Basin with temperatures in the low teens and a coating of new snow.

The rest of Friday should bring early snow showers to the northern mountains and then these showers should clear out later in the midday and afternoon. Temperatures will be chilly over the northern mountains, in the 20s.

Saturday and Sunday will be dry for almost all mountains with highs mostly around 40 degrees. The far northern mountains closest to Wyoming could see a dip in temperatures to the 30s on Sunday as another northern storm provides just a glancing blow of cooler air and maybe a few flakes.

Then, the fun will arrive next week…

Here we go.

For nearly one week, we have been looking at the longer-range forecast with guarded optimism as some models indicated the likelihood for a multi-day storm and significant snow totals.

After scouring all of the latest models this morning, I feel confident that a slow-moving storm will affect our weather for the better part of eight days and at least some mountains should see a lot of snow.

For timing, expect chances for snow to start later on Monday afternoon or evening, and we'll see chances for snow continue through all of next week, through next weekend (April 17-18), and maybe even through early the following week (April 19-20). During this 8+ day stretch, the main area of storminess will essentially be stuck over the western US and the Rockies and will continue to throw energy and moisture across Colorado. We may finally return to dry high pressure around or after April 20th.

For powder days, it's still too soon to pinpoint certain mountains or days, though based on the average of the latest models, I would keep an eye on Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday of next week, look for higher-elevation mountains (temperatures won't be that cold for most areas), and maybe focus on areas near the northern divide as models are continuing to show the most snow at this area (Cameron Pass, Rocky Mountain National Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Winter Park, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin).

For snow amounts, it's also too soon to pinpoint this, though even the lower-resolution ensemble models are going pretty high with 1-2 foot amounts for favored areas. This amount (1-2 feet) is a reasonable first guess for multi-day snow totals for higher elevation mountains (above 10,000 feet) and near the divide. The scenario of multiple rounds of energy and moisture being thrown across Colorado during multiple days means that forecast confidence will likely remain low throughout the storm and we'll need to be ready for last-minute adjustments based on real-time data like radar, snow stake cams, SNOTEL sites, and short-range and high-resolution models.

Below are the multi-model snow forecasts. The potential is exciting.

This type of vague forecast for 'a lot of snow next week and we'll fill in the details later' might feel unsatisfying, but it's really how we should think about the forecast. There is plenty of time to work on fine-tuning the details during the coming days. 

In addition to potential powder days, the other great news about next week's likely storm is that it should drop a decent amount of water equivalent over Colorado, and we can almost always use more water in our system.

Stoke pictures!

I have a few more reader-submitted pictures to share over the coming two weeks.

Here are Nola and Alva as they enjoyed the sunshine at Vail's Blue Sky Basin. Getting back to Blue Sky is quite a trek for little legs...nice work!

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

New Book!

There is a new book called "Hunting Powder: A Skier's Guide to Finding Colorado's Best Snow" and I think it's a great read for you if you are somewhat of a geek about snow and weather forecasting here in Colorado and looking to deepen your knowledge about meteorology and finding deep snow. This book is somewhere between a textbook and a 'what you need to know' guide to forecasting and I am mentioning it here because I reviewed the book and wrote the forward:-) Check out more details and please do consider buying a copy: http://opsw.co/HuntingPowder

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains