We are watching a storm that will move through northern Colorado on Monday into Tuesday, September 20-21. The system will drop mountain temperatures to the 20s and 30s, but earlier forecasts for a decent amount of snow have backed off and now show very little snow, if any.
Short Term Forecast
Let's get right into the forecast.
Friday will be warm and dry.
Saturday will be warm and mostly dry. There's a low chance of a few sprinkles over the western mountains during the afternoon and evening. Also, winds during the afternoon will be gusty and until there is a solid snowpack on the ground, wildfire risk is something to keep in mind!
Saturday night into Sunday morning will bring showers to many mountains. This is different than the weather we're used to with typical afternoon showers. Instead, most models show rain showers on Saturday night that will linger through Sunday mid-morning.
Sunday night through Tuesday midday is when we'll see a cool storm move through the northern mountains. My forecast from two days ago mentioned that this storm could drop at least a few inches of snow and could impact road conditions on Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Since that forecast, the trend in all models is for the storm to track farther to the north and to be drier. That means that moderate snowfall here in Colorado now looks unlikely and instead, the current forecast is for very low amounts, anything from no snow at all to maybe a coating to an inch or two over the northern mountains.
The latest snowfall forecast is pretty meager, with most models coming in at 1-2 inches or less (yes, there are always some high outliers to keep us excited).
Below are four model snow forecasts, ordered from most snow to least (no) snow.
Of course, the forecasts could always swing back the other way and maybe they will, but for now, the trend is for the main impact of the Monday/Tuesday storm to be cool temperatures and deliver little if any snow.
While we all get excited about snow, if little or none of it falls through the rest of September, that means a few more high-elevation hikes and rides will be possible.
Below is 11-year-old Caleb on the Monarch Crest Trail earlier this September, and with no significant storms in the longer-range forecast, there should be more scenes like this during the coming weeks.
I'll keep you updated about the storm early next week and if anything of note pops up in the longer-range forecast.
Thanks for reading, and best wishes for a wonderful weekend!
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